Team needs could change in a hurry once NFL free agency opens this week. Before pen can meet paper on most of the official deals, though, let’s take one more look at how the 2024 NFL Draft’s first (and second) round could play out.
(Note: An asterisk indicates a proposed trade for the purposes of this mock.)
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1. Chicago Bears (from CAR): Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Nothing has changed enough in the NFL Draft zeitgeist to alter this pick. There’s an amorphous description of Williams’ character flaws reminiscent of what surrounded Cam Newton in 2011 — it feels more like detractors grasping at straws than anything substantive. Prospect fatigue is a real thing, but going back to the tape makes it clear that this is the best quarterback in the draft.
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2. Washington Commanders: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
The conversations I’ve seen about Maye the last two weeks are perplexing. In fairness, I’m never against a rookie quarterback taking some time to develop, but I don’t see Maye’s footwork being a project so large that it would hinder early success.
It’s similar to the Anthony Richardson scouting report last year — Maye has some head-scratching misses and poorly placed completions that are due to his balance being off. But he has the pocket navigation needed to handle NFL pressure, which is arguably the most difficult quality to find/develop in QBs.
Washington shouldn’t overthink this. Just take the second best QB in this draft.
3. New England Patriots: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Without some clarity on whether the Patriots intend to trade down, it’s safest to give this franchise a full GM/head coach/QB reset.
Of the clear first-round talents at QB, Daniels is the one who needs the most time. He has the baseline arm talent to be an NFL starter, but he will have to develop the timing and anticipation to work the middle of the field and protect himself — especially in tight pockets. His explosive athletic traits are evident, but they’ll only carry him so far.
With some time behind the right bridge option, Daniels can land somewhere between the likes of Daniel Jones and Jalen Hurts in the NFL QB ranks. The question is whether that’s worth a top-three pick.
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4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Kyler Murray is coming off of a strong showing, which bought him more time as Arizona’s franchise QB. He needs a real supporting cast, though, and Harrison would give him a young X receiver with the potential to dominate the league from Day 1. If he’s there at 4, there’s too much potential value to pass on.
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If New England takes Harrison, on the other hand, Arizona can shop this pick for a QB-desperate team and stock up on future draft capital. Hard to go wrong here.
5. Chicago Bears (from LAC)*: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Projected trade: Bears send No. 9 and 2025 first- and third-round picks to the Chargers for No. 5, No. 69 and a 2025 fourth-round pick
Theoretically, Chicago could wait at 9 and be happy with whichever premium position talent fell in its lap. This team has enough draft capital, however, to secure a playmaker who’s on the same timeline as its rookie quarterback. Odunze can be whatever kind of receiver you need him to, from a ball-winning X to a chain-moving target in the slot. He’d pair well with DJ Moore and balance out the receiver room.
6. Minnesota Vikings (from NYG)*: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
Projected trade: Vikings send No. 11, No. 128 and a 2025 first-round pick to the Giants for No. 6 and 2025 third- and fifth-round picks
It seems inevitable that a QB-needy team will leapfrog Atlanta (or which team ultimately holds the eighth pick) to ensure the next best prospect is still there.
I have my qualms with the passer McCarthy is right now, relative to his draft stock, but he has some enticing tools — and he’s still early on his developmental curve. He would walk into a healthy offensive situation, and it’s possible Minnesota will have a bridge QB he can sit behind until he’s ready. After Chicago, this would be the best landing spot for a rookie QB.
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7. Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Titans GM Ran Carthon mentioned at the combine a desire to add speed — but there’ll be plenty of opportunities to do so later in this draft. The offensive trenches need a boost, especially with OL coach Bill Callahan now on staff.
Alt meets the “dancing bear” archetype you want in a left tackle, and he still has so much potential to uncover given his athleticism. He’s not a mauler in the run game yet, but the tape is clean and his floor is the highest of any prospect at this position.
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8. Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama
Working off the assumption that Kirk Cousins (or some veteran QB) will be Atlanta’s answer in 2024, addressing the defense is the smartest use of this pick.
Turner isn’t just the best speed rusher in this class, he’s the best overall edge defender. Head coach Raheem Morris and defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake did an excellent job developing young players in Los Angeles, so I wouldn’t be surprised if a defender is the pick here — and makes an early impact.
9. Los Angeles Chargers (from CHI)*: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
I’m not the biggest fan of picking a potential franchise tackle and making him switch sides, but I’d be willing to take the chance on a player as talented as Fashanu. He’s not a bully in the run game, but his feet and punch are so clean and consistent there should be no reservations about his ability to effectively move bodies. Fashanu and Rashawn Slater could make for an incredible tandem.
10. New York Jets: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
If I were running the Jets, I’d probably go tackle here. But the chips are pushed all-in for 2024, and Nabers is more likely to make an impact that would satisfy QB Aaron Rodgers. Nabers can tear the top off of a defense, and he’s an underrated receiver in contested-catch situations. Garrett Wilson is a star in the making, and he needs a complement to open up space for him.
11. New York Giants (from MIN)*: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
The top three receivers are off the board, but this team has needs that extend beyond its group of playmakers. Though Evan Neal hasn’t worked out at right tackle, he can find a new role as a swing tackle or utility offensive lineman.
Latham has been dinged because he doesn’t dominate his matchups, but his tape is clean and shows a potential high-quality starter.
12. Denver Broncos: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Denver is in an uncomfortable position, having released several vets to clean up its cap sheet and pivot its roster. So, if there aren’t any options to trade down, it would be wise to take the best premium position talent available. Mitchell has the speed, length and ball skills to be a top-flight CB in his own right, and playing across from Patrick Surtain II could set him up to thrive.
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13. Las Vegas Raiders: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Mims hasn’t given us much tape, but he’s shown dominant flashes and carries an impressive athletic profile. Las Vegas may want a QB, but improving the overall health of this roster first (and taking a flier on a QB later) is more prudent. The combination of Mims and Kolton Miller would solidify this line.
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14. New Orleans Saints: Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State
There aren’t many 265-plus-pound edge rushers who would meet the criteria for Dennis Allen’s 4-3 defense, but Verse has the play style and frame to do the dirty work. His production dipped in 2023, but his supporting cast was much better than the year prior — and Verse’s motor was still there.
The @FSUFootball boys are putting on a show in the 40.
DL Jared Verse putting up a 4.59u.
📺: #NFLCombine on @nflnetwork
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/YqrXROSO8E— NFL (@NFL) February 29, 2024
15. Green Bay Packers (from IND)*: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
Projected trade: Packers send No. 25, No. 168 and a 2025 second-round pick to the Colts for No. 15 and No. 116
If Green Bay wants to add young defensive talent to its roster, it can’t afford to sit in line behind Seattle, Jacksonville and Philadelphia. Trading up to the middle of the first round here ensures access to DeJean, the most versatile defensive back in this class.
For whatever I may think of DeJean’s potential as a shutdown corner, the NFL seems set to make him a safety and slot defender — where he still has All-Pro potential. His speed, ball skills and tackling make it easy to project him as a Derwin James Jr./Jalen Ramsey kind of player.
16. Pittsburgh Steelers (from SEA)*: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Projected trade: Steelers send No. 20, 119 and a 2025 third-round pick to the Seahawks for No. 16, 191 and a 2025 sixth-round pick
With veteran QB Russell Wilson reportedly joining the roster, the Steelers would be wise to use the draft to add young playmakers on defense.
Arnold is a clean evaluation. He can excel in one-on-one coverage, something the Steelers demand of their corners. Joey Porter Jr. showed the makings of a quality starter last year, but he could use a No. 1 CB across from him.
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17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
Drafting a speed demon like Wiggins would give defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen a foundational piece on the back end. Wiggins’ height, length and top-end speed are all elite, and it’s hard to see him being worse than a quality starter.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
With so much offensive firepower in this draft, someone with top-10 talent is guaranteed to slip — and I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s at TE due to positional value. That said, Bowers is a yards-after-catch machine with the versatility to line up anywhere on the field. A mismatch-making TE would help Cincinnati navigate around new contracts for Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase.
19. Los Angeles Rams – Taliese Fuaga, G/T, Oregon State
After nailing their picks in the 2023 draft, the Rams again have made themselves a sneaky NFC competitor. There’s still some work to be done along the offensive line, though, and Fuaga is a prospect who can step in and provide immediate value at tackle or guard. He’s explosive out of his stance, moves bodies in the run game and can hold his own as a pass protector.
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20. Seattle Seahawks (from PIT)*: Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State
Seattle’s in a tricky spot, needing quality edge rushers in a draft short on enticing names. Robinson has a lot to learn about setting edges and playing the run — especially after being in a defensive scheme that went a long way to keep him from the point of attack. The athletic traits are worth taking a swing on, though, and he’d be Seattle’s most exciting edge prospect in years.
21. Miami Dolphins: Troy Fautanu, G/T, Washington
A Tua Tagovailoa (and Jaylen Waddle) extension is on the horizon, so there won’t be much opportunity outside of the draft to add long-term pieces to the offensive line. Fautanu would compete at tackle, and he has the athletic ability to fit in Miami’s scheme. He also could kick inside and play guard.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia
Expect the majority of Philadelphia’s free-agent spending to bolster an aging defense, but Howie Roseman has never shied away from drafting at the same position where he’s tossed money — especially a premium position. Lassiter’s tape shows a good press corner with much better change-of-direction skills than Kelee Ringo, the last Georgia corner Philadelphia drafted.
Top 3-Cone times for CBs
6.62 – Kamari Lassiter 📈📈
6.82 – Ryan Watts
6.88 – Myles Harden
6.99 – Mike Sainristil
7.01 – Josh Newton
7.05 – Chau Smith-Wade
7.12 – Cam Hart
7.12 – M.J. Devonshire— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) March 2, 2024
23. Houston Texans (from CLE): Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
Adding offensive talent on the same timeline as star QB C.J. Stroud should be Houston’s priority, and Thomas (4.3-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3) would be a worthwhile bet for Bobby Slowik’s passing game. He’d need time to develop into a more precise route runner, but his athleticism and big frame will get him out of trouble early in his career.
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24. Dallas Cowboys: Graham Barton, C/G, Duke
Barton is the most underrated offensive lineman in this class. He has true value across all five spots, and Dallas will need to add talent on the interior (as well as Tyron Smith contingencies) if it’s serious about rebuilding a run game around Dak Prescott.
25. Indianapolis Colts: Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
Anthony Richardson and coach Shane Steichen need a big target that can create after the catch, and Coleman needs to be with a strong-armed QB willing to deliver the ball in the 15- to 20-yard range. Coleman’s 40 time at the combine raised eyebrows, but he hit 20-plus miles per hour during other on-field receiver drills. He’s as slippery as any pass catcher in this class once the ball is in his hands.
Despite running the slowest 40-yard dash (4.61) among WRs, Keon Coleman was the fastest of group 8 during the gauntlet drill, reaching 20.36mph.
🎥@NFLpic.twitter.com/RyVoCZ3uT8
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) March 2, 2024
26. Kansas City Chiefs (from TB)*: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
Projected trade: Chiefs send No. 32, No. 158 and a 2025 third-round pick to the Bucs for No. 26 and No. 124
Kansas City needs more perimeter talent, preferably an X receiver to help move the chains on third down. Mitchell had some drops in 2023, but he’s a smooth route runner with arguably the best catch radius in this draft. I doubt he’ll take the leap and become a true franchise receiver, but he won’t have to if he lands in a place like Kansas City.
27. Arizona Cardinals (from HOU): Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA
Like Chicago, Arizona is a team to watch for an aggressive trade up into the top half of Round 1.
In this mock, though, standing pat lands the Cardinals one of the draft’s best pure pass-rushing talents. Latu has the combination of speed, active hands and effort to be a consistent NFL pass rusher. He’s not the strongest edge setter in the run game, but Jonathan Gannon’s defense is built on letting its pass rushers play fast and create havoc.
28. Buffalo Bills: Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
Bills fans will want immediate moves to replace Gabe Davis, Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. That recent roster pivot, though, gives Buffalo a chance to pour more resources into the trenches. Newton can play anywhere from nose tackle out to 4i, and he has the lower-body explosiveness to win as a penetrator or by controlling guards and tackles.
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29. Detroit Lions: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
Detroit has a tight window of opportunity to stay at the top of the NFC, so don’t be surprised if GM Brad Holmes trades for L’Jarius Sneed and uses this pick on the best player available. Until free agency shakes out, though, cornerback is the biggest need on this roster. McKinstry doesn’t have eye-popping measurables or speed scores, but the SEC decided he wasn’t worth throwing at in 2023, because of how smooth and sticky he is in coverage.
30. Baltimore Ravens: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Baltimore is accustomed to picking at the back end of the first round, and its typical strategy of banking on the best athletes available holds here. Guyton is raw — there’s no way around it — but Baltimore’s veterans along the O-line were a problem in the postseason and are on the wrong side of the age curve. Guyton has obvious athletic gifts, so the potential is limitless if he can hone his technique.
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31. San Francisco 49ers: Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU
Like Baltimore, San Francisco needs to add youth to its offensive line. Suamataia is a natural mover, plays with a nastiness you like to see in the run game and is one of the draft’s youngest tackle prospects. Nobody can replace Trent Williams in this offense, but it would be wise to find the next guy in line.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from KC)*: Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
Ryan Jensen’s retirement makes center an immediate need for Tampa Bay. Powers-Johnson has a great anchor and quick feet, and the power in his hands is evident. There are nuances in his pass-protection technique that can get him in trouble, but he projects out as a good starter.
Round 2
33. Carolina Panthers: Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
34. New England Patriots: Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
35. Arizona Cardinals: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
36. Washington Commanders: Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri
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37. Los Angeles Chargers: Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
38. Tennessee Titans: Zach Frazier, C, West Virginia
39. New York Giants: Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota
#Minnesota FS Tyler Nubin is one of my favorite players to study in this year's class. Realistic chance to be the first safety drafted.
His ability to read and make plays on the ball is A++++ pic.twitter.com/kkboWwQDJK
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) October 4, 2023
40. Washington Commanders (from CHI): Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri
41. Green Bay Packers (from NYJ): Christian Haynes, G, UConn
42. Minnesota Vikings: Chris Braswell, Edge, Alabama
43. Atlanta Falcons: T.J. Tampa, CB, Iowa State
44. Las Vegas Raiders: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
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45. New Orleans Saints (from DEN): Kris Jenkins Jr., DT, Michigan
46. Indianapolis Colts: Khyree Jackson, CB, Oregon
47. New York Giants (from SEA): Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan
48. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida
49. Cincinnati Bengals: Kiran Amegadjie, OT, Yale
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50. Philadelphia Eagles (from NO): Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan
51. Pittsburgh Steelers: Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M
52. Los Angeles Rams: Javon Bullard, S, Georgia
53. Philadelphia Eagles: Junior Colson, LB, Michigan
#Michigan LB Junior Colson and DT Kris Jenkins Jr., into your living room.
Colson isn't testing tomorrow, though both are serious athletes in their respective stacks (some of the numbers Michigan's claimed on Jenkins are insane … so, we'll see there). Second round for both? pic.twitter.com/5TRAI2tsMm
— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) February 29, 2024
54. Cleveland Browns: Adisa Isaac, Edge, Penn State
55. Miami Dolphins: Patrick Paul, OT, Houston
56. Dallas Cowboys: Jonathon Brooks, RB, Texas
57. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Payton Wilson, LB, NC State
58. Green Bay Packers: Blake Fisher, OT, Notre Dame
59. Houston Texans: Brandon Dorlus, DL, Oregon
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60. Buffalo Bills: Jalen McMillan, WR, Washington
61. Detroit Lions: Jaden Hicks, S, Washington State
62. Baltimore Ravens: Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, Washington
63. San Francisco 49ers: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
64. Kansas City Chiefs: Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos of Cooper DeJean, Drake Maye and Rome Odunze: David Berding / Getty Images, Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images, Steph Chambers / Getty Images)