Lowetide: Oilers’ trade deadline plan on defence is coming into view

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They say that the best trades are the ones you don’t make, and Edmonton Oilers general manager Ken Holland may well put that wisdom to the test this week.

It’s not certain, but it does appear Philip Broberg has a chance to stay in the organization, grow with the group and establish himself as a productive top-four NHL defenceman in the years to come.

In what has been a weird year, that would be a positive result.

Chris Tanev trade

The Chris Tanev trade by the Calgary Flames last week poked a hole in the Oilers’ plans to shore up the defence.

Based on published information, Plan A for Edmonton management involved acquiring Tanev for Cody Ceci and a first-round selection, effectively upgrading a key position without impacting the cap in a negative way.

It was a fine solution, but the Flames had other ideas.

With Tanev gone, Holland may view the available talent at the deadline as insufficient, although the team has been connected to the Philadelphia Flyers and Sean Walker in recent days.

Ceci may remain the top option for the right spot on the team’s second pairing. That would mean a smaller acquisition (seventh on the depth chart) on defence.

More and more, it appears the big addition for the Oilers at the deadline will come up front. There’s plenty of talent at centre and right wing. Edmonton should get at least one significant addition before Friday afternoon.

Back to the defence, what can management do with limited resources and little cap room?

At this point, a No. 7 defenceman appears the most likely addition.

Among the benefits of a low-cost rental is the likely retention of Broberg, the team’s best defender-in-waiting.

Considering his possible future, Broberg may be the most valuable long-term roster addition Holland can make at the deadline.

If a depth defender is acquired, Broberg would still be a likely option during a long playoff run, as teams often employ eight or more blueliners during the difficult postseason run.

Broberg was part of the plan

Before he was injured in the lead-up to training camp, Mattias Ekholm was mentioned often as a possible preseason defensive partner with Broberg.

It didn’t happen, due to the Ekholm injury and Edmonton’s ghastly start to the season.

These many months later, Broberg has been unable to crack the top six and it’s too late in the year for a full-blown 20-game audition.

That doesn’t in any way reduce his possible importance if an injury occurs.

It would be wise for the organization to keep Broberg, recall him when the cap allows and play him as much as possible down the stretch. Call it injury insurance.

Broberg on the right side

In his brief NHL career, Broberg (a lefty) has played 640 minutes with right-handed partners at five-on-five. The young blueliner has a 31-35 goal share with the traditional alignment.

Broberg with lefties? He has played 254 minutes with partners who are left-handed and the goal share (12-13) is about equal to the results with left-right deployment.

If Broberg is on the right side in a playoff game this spring, some injuries will have occurred. Based on his own NHL resume, he is a player the organization could use on his off-side.

That kind of utility makes Broberg a valuable player to keep.

A midseason deployment wrinkle

On Sunday night against the Pittsburgh Penguins, coach Kris Knoblauch eased the load for the beleaguered Ceci and placed him on a pairing with Brett Kulak.

Ceci’s regular partner, Darnell Nurse, was paired with Vincent Desharnais on a shutdown pairing while the top duo (Ekholm with Evan Bouchard) remained the same.

Using Sidney Crosby as a proxy for the top Penguins line, and the left-side defenceman to represent each pairing, here are the results from the game.

Player	TOI v/Crosby	Shot Share
Darnell Nurse	5:24	1-2 (33 pct)
Mattias Ekholm	4:43	6-1 (86 pct)
Brett Kulak	4:16	7-3 (70 pct)

All numbers five-on-five

Knoblauch likes to roll lines and pairings, eschewing line matching in favour of a more focused system that allows running the top line (Connor McDavid’s trio) with the Ekholm-Bouchard pairing.

Desharnais with Nurse is a rugged unit but lacks an expert outlet passer. It’s possible this pairing works well if kept together, but at home, the head-to-head matchup against the other team’s best may be problematic.

If this duo can’t get the puck out of its end when the opposition’s best is on the ice, that could lead to goals-against at a high rate no matter how well the two men defend.

Another possibility: continuing the Ekholm-Bouchard with McDavid’s line as a five-man unit, but sharing the other minutes against elites among the other two pairings.

If the Oilers trade for a seventh defenceman who is a righty, and Broberg in Bakersfield is the No. 8 man, Edmonton would have four left-handed and right-handed defenders at the ready.

This might be the way forward for the Oilers, with Broberg being the top option to insert into the lineup should speed become an issue.

Broberg’s AHL stats by year

From the moment he stepped on to AHL ice, Broberg has been a consistent outscorer for the Condors.

All numbers even strength

For his AHL career, Broberg’s even-strength goal share (54-36, 60 percent) is well clear of the team when he is off the ice (53 percent). That’s a significant gap.

In the last two seasons, over 56 games and 614 minutes, Broberg’s five-on-five goal share is 51.6 percent and his expected goal share is 57.7 percent.

With Broberg off the ice, the rest of Edmonton’s skaters have a 54 percent goal share and 55 percent expected goal share at five-on-five.

When given the opportunity to play in the NHL over the past two seasons, Broberg has performed well.

Part of the reason Broberg isn’t an established NHL player is the roadblocks placed in front of him by Holland, the man who drafted him.

Broberg’s path to NHL duty on his natural side has been curtailed by Holland’s acquisition of Ekholm and Kulak.

What can’t Broberg do?

So far in his NHL career, Broberg has played very little versus elite competition. He is untested (mostly) against the league’s best, and that would limit his usage this season. He might be able to manage this over time, as he settles in to a role.

Using Puck IQ, here is the progression against elites during portions of three seasons in the NHL.

These are small samples, but over three seasons indicate that Broberg should be relied on only on a sheltered third-pairing this season and postseason.

If there’s a trade available for a more established right-handed defenceman who can push Ceci and Desharnais down the depth chart, a deal makes sense.

If Artem Zub suddenly becomes available, then dealing Broberg makes sense.

Failing that, Holland’s deadline is coming into view.

He either shoots the moon for Walker in Philadelphia or acquires a depth piece.

If he’s still here, Broberg should be on the Edmonton roster at some point during the spring.

His impact over the long term is very likely to be greater than the other deadline (or after) additions.

Broberg’s season was unusual, but he is proving once again that he is an NHL defenceman. He needs a chance.

That could come in Edmonton this fall with a full-time role, and may come earlier if injuries hit.

(Photo of Philip Broberg: Perry Nelson / USA Today)