With an empty net and time winding down in regulation, it was Mika Zibanejad who rose to the occasion with the tying goal to force overtime in Sunday’s Stadium Series game against the New York Islanders.
That goal not only proved to be a difference-maker for the Rangers in a comeback win but it was his third in five games after a seven-game drought.
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The three goals in that span — the 5-5 goal at MetLife Stadium, his short-handed tally versus Montreal the game prior and his overtime game-winner against Chicago on Feb. 9 — all had one thing in common: not one was scored at five-on-five.
Zibanejad is an all-situations player and his production tends to reflect that, with points earned on the power play and short-handed along with at even strength. But the majority of the game is played at five-on-five and that is where he has been the least effective throughout the season.
Usually, Zibanejad’s point totals are boosted by his special teams contribution, not driven by it. But this year, his 19 five-on-five points in 55 games make up less than 36 percent of his scoring. On average heading into this year, he relied on five-on-five production to account for about 55 percent of his scoring totals.
While Zibanejad may be setting up his teammates with a career-high rate of primary assists, there is one glaring drop-off: in the goal column. He has just five goals and is only on pace for seven through 81 games.
Sometimes when a player isn’t scoring as much as expected, it’s simply a product of bad luck. Zibanejad is shooting 6.94 percent at five-on-five this season, and a regression closer to average (10.5 percent) should lead to more production. But that alone likely isn’t enough to spark a dramatic scoring swing.
Zibanejad’s shot volume and quality likely have something to do with that. The center is attempting shots at a career-low rate of 10.7 per 60 minutes. It isn’t the most stark decrease from years past, but it hurts the Rangers that a lower clip is even reaching the net. About 56 percent of Zibanejad’s attempts (down three percent from last year) are going on goal. That difference comes from how many of his shots are getting blocked, which likely stems from where he is shooting the puck from.
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Compared to recent seasons, Zibanejad’s average shot distance has increased this year. While he is still clustering shots to the quality areas of the ice, it is not as pronounced as in the past. Generating scoring chances would help balance out some of those outside shots he has taken this season, as the shot maps below show.
Via HockeyViz
If Zibanejad’s lesser shot production was just a matter of opting for quality over quantity, it probably would not be as concerning. But his scoring chance rate is down, as is his expected goal generation. And unlike years past, he has not outperformed expectations with his finishing talent.
Through 55 games this season, there just seem to be elements missing from Zibanejad’s usual offensive attack. Despite not carrying the puck in as often this season, he is still creating offense in transition at a high rate. But he isn’t generating much off the cycle or forecheck, and neither is his mainstay winger Chris Kreider. Those rush opportunities, too often, are just one-and-done chances. Some of that has to do with the fact that Zibanejad is pressuring the puck less to maintain possession and extend zone time.
And even when the Rangers do have the zone time, Zibanejad is deferring to his linemates more often instead of taking the opportunity to shoot himself.
That’s a key reason why he has earned a career-high rate of primary assists at five-on-five. Zibanejad being a dual-threat does add a dimension to the line. Between him and Kreider, the Rangers have more than one scoring threat who can challenge defenders.
But Zibanejad’s primary strength is his shot. So when he passes up prime scoring opportunities to set up his teammates, or shows any sort of hesitation to shoot, it can burn the Rangers. There has to be more balance, so he can be that consistent scoring threat the team counts on him to be.
While the Rangers are seeing the results when Zibanejad moves the puck, his shot and scoring chance assist rate is actually down, too. So that dip, paired with the decrease in shot volume, explains why New York is generating less in his minutes, and why his overall offensive impact is down even when accounting for his role. That is reflected on the heat maps below, with red representing more offense (on both ends of the ice) and blue less.
Along with individual adjustments in his game, there may be two other contributing factors that can be addressed ahead of the deadline: his defensive workload and supporting cast.
Taking on matchup minutes is nothing new for Zibanejad. While he doesn’t shoulder them alone, he does lead the way in New York with the toughest quality of competition. That can weigh down a player’s offense, especially if they do not have a lot of two-way support alongside them.
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Top defensive forwards are more involved in getting play out of the defensive zone and shifting to offense, sharing a responsibility that typically defenders are relied on for. Zibanejad’s workload of retrieving pucks and exiting the zone has increased this season compared to last, and he has done it more efficiently. It’s an important role to take on, especially since the Rangers’ defenders outside of Adam Fox have not all been as effective in this area.
The best two-way centers manage that workload and create offense at an elite rate, but not everyone can be expected to reach that bar. That’s the difference between being an all-around superstar forward and just being a defensive asset. The Rangers obviously need Zibanejad to lean closer to that star caliber, which means finding ways to maximize his game. The answer could be finding a right winger to share that defensive workload so he can focus more on his offense, or finding a puck carrier who can push him into more of a shooting capacity once in the zone.
The former is something Kaapo Kakko has done really well this season, which may help explain why that line’s underlying numbers are better with him there over Blake Wheeler. Zibanejad may be able to focus more on offense when he has more defensive contributions on the right, which could be why his shot and expected goal creation are higher in his minutes with Kakko, compared to any other right winger this season. The results just haven’t been there consistently, so management has to decide whether they can afford to bet on that changing down the stretch and into the postseason.
Kakko does a lot of the little things to help a team click on both ends of the ice. But passing hasn’t been a highlight of his game this season, and that may be the key to getting Zibanejad to score at a higher pace. Almost every one of his five-on-five goals this season has been directly preceded by a dangerous pass. That could be what makes a playmaker the team’s primary trade deadline target.
Power play opportunities are no guarantee in the playoffs, and neither is scoring once on the man advantage. If a team wants to have success, there has to be reliable five-on-five scoring. As it stands, New York only has that in one line: Artemi Panarin’s. So while Zibanejad may be getting back on the scoresheet more consistently in February, that has to trickle into five-on-five play. Until that happens, the Rangers’ top priority has to be finding ways to maximize his game to get him back to that top-line center caliber — and that means emphasizing Zibanejad’s best weapon, his shot.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, AllThreeZones, and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Photo: Al Bello / Getty Images)