Matz Sels made his third appearance for Nottingham Forest on Saturday against West Ham United and helped the team keep their first Premier League clean sheet in 14 outings.
The ‘keeper was a late addition during the January window, signing for £5million ($6.3m) from Strasbourg, whose supporters were sad to see the Belgian depart. For Sels, it represented an opportunity to test himself in the Premier League and to take another step in his career at the age of 31.
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For Forest, it meant that they added to a group of international goalkeepers that already included Matt Turner (USMNT), Odysseas Vlachodimos (Greece) and Wayne Hennessey (Wales).
To those who do not watch the team regularly, it might have felt like an unusual addition. Those who do will have been more understanding.
And, following his appointment in late December, it even took Nuno Espirito Santo several weeks to come around to the idea that signing another goalkeeper might be the right idea, after initially concluding that Turner and Vlachodimos would be enough to see them through until the end of the campaign.
So, what are the early impressions of Sels? What qualities will he bring to the Forest squad? And how has his arrival changed the goalkeeping dynamic at the City Ground? Paul Taylor and The Athletic’s goalkeeping expert, Matt Pyzdrowski, take a look.
Is Sels an upgrade?
In some very significant senses, yes. In others, no.
In fairness to Sels, it has been hard to judge his physical qualities as a ‘keeper in the games he has played so far.
West Ham had only three shots on target at the City Ground — none of which particularly troubled Sels. He had a save percentage of 100 per cent. Forest’s new defensive solidity meant that David Moyes’ side registered an expected goals (xG) figure of just 0.5 in the game.
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But what is not quantifiable by statistics is the general level of confidence Forest’s players seem to have in their new ‘keeper. There was no nervousness when it came to passing the ball back to Sels, his team-mates expect him to be comfortable with it at his feet.
Which is one of the major reasons he was signed. Bringing him in was about more than just his career stats — many of which are very similar to Turner’s.
Sels, who went about his business without fuss, has a save percentage of 65 this season, while Turner’s is 67.5 and Vlachodimos’ is 50.
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Forest made approaches or offers for at least seven goalkeepers during the January window. But that is understandable in the circumstances, given their late decision to sign another goalkeeper. There was not much time to plan for the unexpected.
Sels is a signing who had the seal of approval from Nuno, himself a former goalkeeper, with the Forest manager clear on the qualities he wants to see from his man between the posts.
Sels is a different ‘keeper to Turner. He is not as aggressive when it comes to coming for crosses, for example. He prefers to stay on his line and let his defenders deal with things, in some situations. But there are other areas in which he will be a step up in class on the other options Forest have — more on that later.
Pyzdrowski’s verdict: “My feeling with Sels is that he is not historically the best shot-stopper. Over the last seven years, he has only been positive with shot-stopping twice, when it comes to PSxG-GA (Post-shot expected goals, minus goals against, which is a measurement of a goalkeeper’s shot-stopping against the statistical average), over a season.
“You cannot look at save percentage alone, because so much can impact that and it is not always an accurate representation of things, without more context.
“Crossing… Sels is a keeper who generally stays on his line. His crossing-stop percentage is only two per cent. Odi is similar with 3.9 per cent and Turner is way up there, with 10.1 per cent, which we know is one of his strengths. He takes up an aggressive position and is willing to go when the ball is in the air. Turner does have good hands. We have not always seen that at Forest this season but that is, historically, one of his strengths.”
If Sels is statistically similar to the players Forest have, what are the benefits of bringing him in?
The situation is nuanced, but some of the benefits are already obvious.
Those who watched Turner, 29, regularly before he came to England to join Arsenal, in the summer of 2022, believe he is underperforming on some fronts and that he is a better player than he has demonstrated.
A series of costly mistakes have also shaped the first impressions that Forest fans have made of him. Only Turner will know how much his own confidence has been damaged. But what is easier to say with certainty is that other people’s confidence in him had diminished.
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By signing Sels, Forest have recruited a replacement who arrives armed with self-belief — and with a clean slate when it comes to how he is perceived by those around him. They have, in theory, addressed something that was becoming a problem.
The change has certainly had the desired positive impact.
Pyzdrowski’s verdict: “There was a lot of talk about the goalkeepers not doing well — which was truthful.
“Forest wanted to give themselves the best chance of staying in the Premier League. They felt that Sels was the guy for that. There will be a mental strain on Turner and Vlachodimos. Goalkeepers need the security of knowing they are No 1.
“It is always helpful to decide who is No 1 and who is No 2. If anything happens to the No 1, you need somebody who can step in. If you have two ‘keepers of equal quality — which is how I would describe Turner and Vlachodimos — it might not always end well.
“The idea with Sels will have been for somebody to come in and shake things up.”
What are Sels’ strengths?
Sels has similar shot-stopping figures to Turner and there is one area in particular where he stands out, as he is very strong in one-on-one situations.
Sels’ approach when he faces shots is also slightly different from how other ‘keepers might do things.
Pyzdrowski’s verdict: “Once a player is through on goal, Sels is very, very quick off his line to close the angle. He makes himself big and does not turn his chest either, because you always want your chest to be square to the ball.
“He has good feet too. He is not amazing, by any means, but he is an upgrade, because that is a bit of a weak spot in Turner’s game. Sels has a pass completion percentage of 72.3, in comparison to Turner’s 68.9.
“It might have played a role in Nuno’s thinking. He is not a downgrade when it comes to shot-stopping — so the signing should have a net positive overall. From a technical perspective, Sels has some good qualities.
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“He has a very low stance. Even for shots from outside the area, he sets himself low, so he can be very good with balls that are low to the ground, because his hands are already naturally lower. But when the balls are higher, it can take him more time to get there, which can make it harder for him to save those.
“He moves a lot before a shot, which can be a positive and a negative. He moves his feet and his body. Even the way he moves his upper body is up and down a little bit, when he is adjusting. The good thing is that he is always trying to get himself in the right position, the bad thing is that he is not always set as a result.”
Nuno is a former ‘keeper himself… will he be more understanding of the situation?
Nuno will understand as well as anyone the different pressures faced by the man between the posts, having been there himself. He will appreciate the need for confidence.
What Nuno has done now is send out a clear message that Sels is his No 1 now and that he is somebody he has faith in to get the job done.
Turner got a fresh chance in the FA Cup against Bristol City (and performed well), but Nuno made it clear that Sels would be first choice in the Premier League. “Matz is here because he is a good goalkeeper. He is experienced,” said Nuno.
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That FA Cup cameo will hopefully have boosted Turner’s confidence again as well, given that he made a key save in the penalty shootout.
Pyzdrowski’s verdict: “They have to stick with Sels now. Nuno believes he is good enough to be his No 1 and he needs to stand by him, because it will only create havoc if he does change again.”
Is there a way back for Turner?
Turner has gone from being third-choice ‘keeper at New England Revolution to being a £10m signing at a Premier League club. He has fought to make progress every step of the way. While he does have hurdles to overcome at Forest, this will be nothing new for him.
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Turner blotted his copybook with a rushed, sloppy pass that cost Forest a goal in what proved to be Steve Cooper’s final game in charge, against Tottenham Hotspur on December 15.
A similar mistake allowed Manchester United to equalise at the City Ground on December 30, though Forest still managed to secure a 2-1 win.
There have been other nervy moments from Turner along the way. But it must be remembered that this is still his first season playing regularly in one of the most demanding leagues in the world.
Pyzdrowski’s verdict: “Turner is not the type of character who will be thrown off by this. He showed that with his performance in the FA Cup. He is a resilient character. He started late as a keeper and has always had to prove himself. He has thrived in the underdog role.
“There is a way back for him but, at the same time, we will see if that is at Forest.”
What about Vlachodimos?
Vlachodimos, 29, arrived as a Greece international and as a signing that the Forest hierarchy were particularly excited about.
And there was substance to those positive vibes, with Vlachodimos having established himself as No 1 in the high-pressure surroundings of Panathinaikos in his early twenties.
He has played in Europe for them and for Benfica, as well as establishing himself on the international stage. But he, like Turner, did not look very assured in a Forest shirt.
Forest beat Aston Villa 2-0 on his debut, but they then conceded 12 goals in his next four Premier League appearances, culminating in the 5-0 loss at Fulham on December 6. Vlachodimos hasn’t played in the league for Forest since then.
Pyzdrowski’s verdict: “There have been noises from Greece that Vlachodimos will be unhappy if he isn’t getting first-team football — and that is natural.
“It feels as though he is third in the pecking order and it would not be a surprise if he pushes for a move in the summer if that remains the case.”
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What will the dynamic be among the keepers on the training ground?
Forest took all four of their senior keepers to the match against Bournemouth, in the days immediately after the transfer window had closed. The four of them looked comfortable together, sharing high-fives and hugs as they went through the various routines to get Sels ready to make his debut.
Pyzdrowski’s verdict: “All of them are professional so they will be cordial. There will be a bit of resentment, even if they do not let it show. That is only natural, because they will all be wanting to play and only one of them can.
“Turner is not the type to sulk or to create an uncomfortable environment for anyone else. But, equally, he will want to push Sels, because he wants to earn his chance again.
“A goalkeeper group is small; it is close — and you naturally have to be supportive of each other to thrive, even when you might be disappointed. Nuno will have to handle this carefully. But, as long as he is honest with them, there is less likely to be a problem.”
(Top photo: MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images)