Follow live coverage of Super Bowl LVIII between San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has to have an overarching philosophy against the San Francisco 49ers in Sunday’s Super Bowl: We are going to stop the run, and if Brock Purdy and his weapons can beat our defensive backs, by far the best part of our defense, we can live with it.
Advertisement
The Chiefs, as good as their defense has been, have been susceptible to the run, in particular zone runs, in which the 49ers specialize. It won’t be as simple as loading the box. To stop San Francisco’s rushing attack, Kansas City will need a masterpiece from defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, a game plan reminiscent of Bill Belichick’s against Sean McVay’s Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LIII, in which the New England Patriots held the explosive Rams offense to just 3 points.
GO DEEPER
Inside 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl matchup: What to watch when KC has the ball
The Chiefs don’t have to shut down the 49ers to that degree, but this is a much better and more complete offense than that Jared Goff-led Rams unit. San Francisco majors in outside zone but can gash you with gap scheme, and Purdy can beat you with the dropback passing game and second-reaction plays. There is a world in which the 49ers control the ball on the ground, eat up the clock and keep putting up points. The Chiefs cannot let that happen. In the regular season, the 49ers led the league in yards per carry on zone runs. The Chiefs were 31st in yards per carry against zone runs.
The Chiefs struggled against zone runs because they like to have light bodies on the field to match up when they blitz and they simply don’t have a lot of sturdy defensive tackles. Also, they thrive on creating negative plays with a lot of movement pre- and post-snap to cause confusion, but good zone-running teams can just sort through the chaos by staying on their zone tracks.
For Spagnuolo to put together his masterpiece, he could very well borrow from Belichick’s Super Bowl LIII defensive game plan. The Patriots primarily lined up in a 6-1 front with a soft zone behind it to take away the Rams’ outside zone game and explosive play-action shot plays. The 2019 Patriots defense shares a lot of similarities with the 2023 Chiefs defense. They’re elite pass defenses that major in man coverage but can be soft against the run. The 6-1 clogged up running lanes while relying on the secondary to keep a lid on the offense. Again, this 49ers offense is much more complete, so the Chiefs can’t lean into the 6-1 front as frequently as the Patriots did, but I suspect it’ll be a major component of their early-downs game plan.
Week 13, 8:06 remaining in the first quarter, first-and-goal
Spagnuolo has used the 6-1 before. This image is from Week 13 when the Chiefs played the Green Bay Packers, who are also a zone-running team. Against the Miami Dolphins in the wild-card round, the 6-1 was a more prominent part of their game plan.
Wild-card round, 5:47 remaining in the first quarter, first-and-10
Here, the Chiefs got into a 6-1 with two defensive backs playing on the edge. The Chiefs have versatile chess pieces, and Spagnuolo moves them all around his fronts. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel runs a similar system to the 49ers, but there are some major differences. The Dolphins are focused on getting to the outside and beating defenses around the edge, while the 49ers want Christian McCaffrey to make the vertical cut or cut back when they run outside zone. Also, the 49ers have George Kittle, who is one of the best blocking tight ends in the league, and a much better offensive line. The Chiefs aren’t going to line up in dime (six defensive backs) often.
Still, you can see why the 6-1 is difficult to run zone with. With six defenders on the line of scrimmage, the offensive line can’t double-team and has to single block. Trent McDuffie is an excellent run-stuffing nickel, but he’s not going to be able to take on Kittle as Durham Smythe does on this play.
McDuffie set the edge and allowed the defense to scrape over and tackle the ball carrier for a short gain. Having only one defender on the second level leaves the defense susceptible if the ball carrier gets past the first level, but theoretically, the front should slow the ball carrier enough for the secondary to come from depth and help.
Advertisement
The 6-1 also works well against play action.
Wild-card round, 14:56 remaining in the third quarter, first-and-10
Here, the Chiefs were in a 6-1 from their base personnel with two deep safeties, and both corners pressed initially.
After the snap, linebacker Willie Gay Jr., who was lined up on the edge, covered the tight end in the flats. McDuffie, who was playing outside corner, bumped out with the motion. Safety Justin Reid and linebacker Nick Bolton covered the slot inside.
The 49ers haven’t been as reliant on play action as they have been in the past. With Purdy under center and the matchup nightmares available to him like Kittle and McCaffrey, simply lining up in heavy personnel is enough for the offense to create mismatches in the passing game. This is where the Chiefs’ versatile defenders come into play. Spagnuolo can’t telegraph when they are going to get into their 6-1 front. Again, I don’t think they’ll line up in dime in early downs, but they can shift into their 6-1 from their nickel or four-down front. Linebacker Leo Chenal is one of the Chiefs’ best run defenders, and his ability to play on the line of scrimmage or off it will be vital for Kansas City’s ability to disguise.
Wild-card round, 11:05 remaining in the first quarter, first-and-10
Here, the Chiefs came out with their four-down personnel (four defensive linemen and three linebackers) and initially looked like they were going to line up in a 4-3.
After the Dolphins shifted, the defensive tackles bumped over and Chenal lined up in the B-gap. They went from an even front to an odd (bear) front, which messed with the offensive line’s blocking assignments. Modern offenses want to change the picture for defenses by shifting and motioning before the snap, so Spagnuolo counters by changing the picture for them as well.
Of course, this doesn’t work without Chenal’s physicality. On this play, he ran through the right guard and forced the ball carrier to run into defensive end George Karlaftis, who was unblocked.
Karlaftis is also one of the Chiefs’ best and most versatile run defenders. Karlaftis, Chenal and Chris Jones will have to anchor the run defense on early downs.
Divisional round, 15:00 remaining in the first quarter, first-and-10
Here, Karlaftis lined up inside against the Baltimore Ravens’ two-tight-end formations. Linebacker Drue Tranquill lined up as the edge, and Chenal was at off-ball linebacker.
Tranquill did a good job of setting the edge and forcing the ball back to Karlaftis, who pancaked the right guard, and Chenal, who shed the block of the left guard.
Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan trusts Purdy more than he has any quarterback he’s had other than Matt Ryan, and there were games when he got pass-happy. I don’t see him deviating from the run a lot in this game. They will try to wear down the Chiefs upfront. The Chiefs don’t have a lot of capable bodies against the run to rotate on the defensive line, and they’ll be without defensive end Charles Omenihu, who tore his ACL last week.
GO DEEPER
How to beat the 49ers: Our writers explain the game plans used to defeat S.F. this season
How will Kansas City defend the 49ers’ passing game?
The Chiefs’ defensive backs have smothered wide receivers all season. Spagnuolo refuses to get beaten by No. 1 receivers. The Ravens’ Zay Flowers had a good day against the secondary two weeks ago, but I don’t think they viewed him as a bona fide No. 1, so he didn’t see many double-teams.
In their last four games before the AFC Championship Game, and not including Week 18 when they rested their starters, the Chiefs held Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase and Davante Adams to a combined 12 catches for 128 yards. They’ve allowed the fourth-fewest yards to receivers on the season.
Advertisement
It should be a long day for Brandon Aiyuk, who will be followed by L’Jarius Sneed. Sneed will play him one-on-one, but Aiyuk will see his fair share of doubles on third downs. The Chiefs will also play a lot of press coverage, which will make it hard to get the ball to Deebo Samuel underneath. The 49ers will have to hand off the ball to Samuel or throw him tunnel screens. Aiyuk and Kittle are Purdy’s most frequently targeted players against man coverage and the blitz. If the Chiefs successfully take away Aiyuk, it’ll be up to Kittle to create big plays against the Chiefs linebackers. McCaffrey will also have to be a big part of the passing game. The 49ers are more suited to create mismatches from positions outside of receivers than other teams, but the Chiefs have good coverage linebackers and safeties.
GO DEEPER
How to beat the Chiefs: Our writers explain the game plans used to defeat K.C. this season
The great equalizer will be the pass rush. Jones has to be dominant against the 49ers’ guards. Even if the Chiefs don’t get to Purdy, they have to get their hands up, as batted passes at the line of scrimmage have been a problem for Purdy. In the regular season, he had five passes batted down at the line of scrimmage (third most in the league), and the Chiefs are among the best teams at batting down passes at the line of scrimmage. Jones has five batted-down passes in the regular season and postseason. On critical plays, Jones lines up at defensive end. Against the 49ers last season, he had two sacks against former 49ers right tackle Mike McGlinchey. In the Super Bowl, he’ll line up against Colton McKivitz, and Jones is hard to chip because he bull rushes through blockers.
If the Chiefs can force the 49ers to get into a passing script, they have an advantage. The league has trended toward becoming more zone-heavy with soft coverage, but the Chiefs have the defensive backs to aggressively play press, which allows Spagnuolo to get creative with pressure schemes. I’m not sure if the Chiefs can stop the 49ers’ rushing attack between the 20s. Where they have to win is in the red zone, where they can stuff the box and man up the receivers. Purdy is aggressive, and he’ll throw some dangerous passes. According to Pro Football Focus, he ranks seventh in percentage of turnover-worthy passes among qualifying passers. He’ll be throwing into a lot of tight windows against the Chiefs secondary.
This game should come down to red zone efficiency. Will Shanahan match Andy Reid’s aggressiveness on fourth down or settle for field goals with rookie kicker Jake Moody, who missed a kick against the Detroit Lions? Shanahan has been more aggressive on fourth down this season, but maybe having a rookie kicker will push him to be even more aggressive. The 49ers have the best red zone offense in the league, scoring touchdowns on 67.2 percent of red zone trips, and the Chiefs have the NFL’s eighth-best red zone defense, allowing teams to score touchdowns on just 50 percent of red zone trips.
This game is so intriguing because there are so many strength-versus-strength matchups. For the Chiefs defense, it’ll come down to limiting the run and forcing Purdy to execute at a high level in the red zone. Doing those two things against this offense will require high-level game planning from Spagnuolo. Can one of the best postseason defensive coordinators in recent memory deliver again?
GO DEEPER
With latest Super Bowl run, Chiefs' would-be dynasty echoes 'Patriot Way'
GO DEEPER
NFL coaches pick the Super Bowl winner: Why they think Kansas City has the edge
(Top photo of Christian McCaffrey: Michael Zagaris / Getty Images)