Ates: The Winnipeg Jets’ defence is a strength but bar is higher for contenders

The Winnipeg Jets’ priority coming out of the All-Star break is to prepare for a Stanley Cup run.

For Kevin Cheveldayoff, this means assessing the Jets’ performance with Sean Monahan in the lineup and scouring the trade market for other upgrades. Monahan meets two of the Jets’ biggest needs — he’s a power-play threat playing the bumper position and he could be an ideal fit on a line with Cole Perfetti and Nikolaj Ehlers — but the Jets’ work isn’t done.

Their offence has gone dry, to be sure. Pittsburgh’s 3-0 win on Tuesday was more than the fourth Jets loss in a row: It was the Jets’ fourth time being shut out this season. Winnipeg’s power play went 0-for-2 while Pittsburgh scored twice during Brenden Dillon’s five-minute match penalty for a shoulder check to Noel Acciari’s head. Special teams are holding back Winnipeg’s quality performance at five-on-five.

The power play is the same mess it was a month ago when we wrote this deep dive into the Jets’ systemic weaknesses. The five-on-five game is good, despite the lack of goals. I wonder if the Jets will go shopping for a veteran defenceman who kills penalties. Both Penguins goals during Dillon’s penalty were on broken plays that Pittsburgh pounced on first — Jeff Carter, then Bryan Rust.

Even if you take a deep breath and blame bounces, not boxouts, for those goals, the Jets’ penalty kill is ranked 25th in the league. They went shopping for Monahan in part as a solution for their 25th-ranked power play and Cheveldayoff said that “the work off the ice isn’t going to stop” during the post-trade news conference when asked about his desire to upgrade Winnipeg’s defence.

In the short term, the Jets will lick their wounds and brace for a potential Dillon suspension. His check to Acciari’s head early in the second period was a turning point in the game. I didn’t see Dillon leave his feet and it’s clear that he kept his elbow tucked close beside him. His shoulder did hit Acciari’s head, though, and that’s a type of hit the NHL is working to eliminate.

It’s interesting that the referees chose to call a match penalty — a discretionary call available if they judge that there has been an attempt to injure the opposing player.

I don't see a jump. I see an elbow tucked into his body. I do see clear head contact.

Intent to injure is subjective and I'd say that part is up for debate.pic.twitter.com/5d4EWbYfbX

— Murat Ates (@WPGMurat) February 7, 2024

“The referees made the call and unfortunately it didn’t go our way with that call,” Rick Bowness told reporters in Pittsburgh. “The second power-play goal is kind of a broken play but that’s hockey. You fight through it.”

In the long run, a Jets team that just finished its third straight game with five defencemen after previous injuries to Dillon and Josh Morrissey might take a bigger picture look to consolidating its defence.

There are familiar, well-respected names like Chris Tanev and Sean Walker on the trade market. Tanev is a former Manitoba Moose as well as the older brother of Brandon Tanev, a longtime fan favourite in Winnipeg. Pierre LeBrun reports that Tanev’s price is a second-round pick plus another asset. Winnipeg might even have in-house upgrades available: Ville Heinola has been excellent in 10 games for Manitoba since recovering from his ankle injury. Heinola had a brilliant training camp, earning a full-time job in the eyes of Winnipeg’s coaching staff, but was hurt before opening night. Logan Stanley could draw in after being held to just seven games on the season.

Before we lose ourselves down the rabbit hole of the trade market, the puck-moving prowess of Winnipeg’s 22-year-old prospect or its 25-year-old first-rounder from eight years ago, consider the driving force behind the Jets’ success. Winnipeg certainly isn’t fighting for top spot in its division because its offensive stars are running rampant, carving teams apart and scoring at will. The biggest driver behind Winnipeg’s success has been its defensive quality.

Thanks to improved 200-foot play, quality execution of Winnipeg’s zone defence and great goaltending, the Jets have given up the fewest goals in the league. This is particularly evident at five-on-five, where the Jets have given up 13 fewer goals than the second best team (Florida) and carries the highest proportion of goals for versus goals against in the league. The underlying numbers mostly support this excellence; Winnipeg has given up the fifth-fewest shots and the fourth-fewest expected goals at five-on-five, according to Evolving Hockey.

I think some of the criticism Winnipeg is getting right now is about emotions run rampant more than clear-eyed analysis.

I do have time for pointing out Ehlers-Scheifele-Vilardi's 15-4 goals lead during their time as the Jets' top line.

They were dominant by every metric. https://t.co/p9XfKqjha5

— Murat Ates (@WPGMurat) February 7, 2024

If that falls apart, then even an offensive surge won’t be enough to re-establish Winnipeg’s winning ways.

That’s part of why it’s so important to take a long-term view of the Jets’ defence corps. Dylan DeMelo plays with Morrissey on the top pair. He’s consistently been the team’s best fit with Morrissey, delivering quality shot metrics while enjoying an outstanding 38-19 Jets lead in goals at five-on-five this season. DeMelo is a pending unrestricted free agent.

Dillon is a key part of the Jets’ second pairing and a big, strong, physical player who will be important to any Jets’ playoff success. He and Neal Pionk are closer to 50 percent in shot metrics while enjoying a 27-19 Jets lead in goals at five-on-five. (It’s important to note that Nate Schmidt and Dylan Samberg are also outplaying their minutes at five-on-five and winning their matchups 15-7 while acknowledging that the top four play tougher matchups.)

Dillon, 33, switched agents this week, moving from Craig Oster with Newport Sports to Allain Roy with RSG Hockey Inc. Roy, a Jets draft pick in 1989, told The Athletic on Tuesday that Winnipeg’s biggest focus is on the Cup run. He doesn’t expect contract negotiations to ramp up in earnest until after the season, noting the Jets’ need to handle the trade deadline and other free agents like DeMelo and Perfetti.

Roy says Dillon is open to re-signing in Winnipeg.

“They’ve got something special going on in that locker room,” Roy said.

Roy also notes that he will be fully prepared to approach the market if he doesn’t ultimately end up being a long-term fit in Winnipeg. Again, it’s too soon to be sure what that future holds. If Dillon misses time due to suspension, it might be worth considering his importance to future Jets success. Winnipeg is in a great spot right now in large part due to what Morrissey-DeMelo and Dillon-Pionk have provided but only has Morrissey, Pionk, Samberg and Schmidt under contract for next season.

Stanley and Heinola, who is also a Roy client, are restricted free agents. The salary cap is projected to increase by $4 million — not enough to accommodate Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck’s collective $4.7 million raises, sign Perfetti to a bridge deal and re-sign DeMelo and Dillon to identical contracts to the ones they have now. Whether it’s one of them, Schmidt or another roster player, it seems as though something has to give heading into next season.

A four-game losing streak may be an awkward moment to focus on appreciating present greatness. As the Jets struggle to score while potentially facing a Dillon suspension, it seems important to acknowledge that Winnipeg is a good team having a successful season. Nothing lasts forever, though, and as Cheveldayoff said last week: “The work off the ice isn’t going to stop.”

(Photo of Brenden Dillon: Justin Berl / Getty Images)