Nikola Jokić, Anthony Edwards and Dame: Remembering 2023 and predicting 2024

It’s time to take one more look back at 2023 and then focus on the year ahead.

What was the NBA’s defining moment in 2023? Which young player is on the verge of a breakout in 2024? And which team is best positioned for the future?

To answer those questions and more, The Athletic has assembled three of its writers: Mike Vorkunov, Sam Amick and Josh Robbins.

What NBA moment from the 2023 calendar year sticks with you the most? 

Mike Vorkunov: I guess if you want to be basic then it’s LeBron James setting the all-time scoring record in February. That was cool if you’re the sort who’s into once-in-a-generation events. I might be more impressed by Phil Knight for watching history instead of trying to record it on his phone, showing that there are still people out there whose brains have not been deep-fried by phones and social media.

But if you’re like me, and you’re trying to see if Ipswich Town FC will find a way to gain promotion this season and you’re along for the ride, then the journey is the destination. So the answer here is Nikola Jokić’s ascent into history and his crowning moment in June. Jokić should’ve won a third-straight MVP award last season. He didn’t and then went on a postseason rampage. Watching him lay waste to the NBA was fun, even before it ended in a title and NBA Finals MVP. Seeing a new player step onto the mountaintop is one of those things that makes the NBA so much fun and happens less frequently than you think with the NBA’s history of condensed title winners and all-time greats. We saw it with Giannis in 2021, Steph in 2015 and LeBron in Miami. Jokić is there now, a no-doubt Hall-of-Famer who already has one of the better résumés in league history (two MVP awards, an NBA Finals MVP, a ring and countless horse racing plaques). His moment on the podium after pushing the Nuggets to the NBA title was memorable.

Sam Amick: Dame Time was standing still. It was late September, nearly three months after the best Trail Blazers player of all time, Damian Lillard, had asked out of Portland, and it seemed as if the league’s latest superstar saga might spill over into the winter — if not 2024. Lillard wanted to go to Miami, but Blazers general manager Joe Cronin had made it clear — by way of his behind-the-scenes actions — that the Heat scenario wasn’t happening.

The tension had risen on both sides, but there was no resolution in sight. So Lillard, no doubt concerned that he might get sent to a team that wasn’t of his liking, told the team that he’d be patient and professional for as long as it took to get a deal done that worked for both sides. In the end, there was no need for that sort of gesture: The blockbuster trade that sent him to Milwaukee to join forces with Giannis Antetokounmpo was about to happen.

In terms of shock factor, the deal that went down midday on Sept. 27 was extremely high because the Bucks had operated in the shadows the whole time. As I wrote back in late October, the front office group — general manager Jon Horst and a trusted handful of others — even worked for several days inside the team’s locker room at Fiserv Forum as a way of ensuring that nothing leaked in the media (working in their team offices across the street would have meant more eyeballs and ears). I didn’t have any sense that the Bucks were willing to trade Jrue Holiday, which meant there was no reason to suspect Milwaukee as a major player in the Lillard sweepstakes. And I, like so many others, couldn’t have been more wrong.

But in terms of why this moment was so memorable, it’s because it seemed for so long like Lillard would never leave Portland. Even with the decline of the team, and with the ownership uncertainty that unfolded in the wake of Paul Allen’s passing in October 2018 or the front office drama that led to an overhaul in December 2021, Lillard seemed determined to go against the star player grain and stay put. It’s still weird to see him in a different jersey, to be honest. That’s why this is the one that sticks with me the most.

Josh Robbins: The defining moment of 2023 was the image of Nuggets fans inside Ball Arena jumping, holding their arms above their heads and screaming themselves hoarse as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope gathered a defensive rebound in the closing seconds of Game 5 and dribbled out the clock.

Yes, as my pal Vork just said, it was the moment Jokić ascended to true NBA greatness.

But for me, what made the Nuggets’ victory so special was that it was their first league championship ever. They were one of the ABA’s original 11 teams and didn’t win the title in nine years there. And they had not won an NBA championship since the ABA and NBA merged for the 1976-77 season.

In case you’re wondering, I have no ties to Denver. But even a complete outsider can feel happy for a fan base who waited over half a century for their favorite team’s first title.

What was the most underappreciated NBA storyline of 2023? 

Vorkunov: The erosion of defense. Not in the cranky, old man yells at a cloud, “They don’t play defense in the NBA!” way but in the way we’ve just seen an explosion of offense around the league that seems hard to stop. We’ve heard Steve Kerr complain about it. Sam Presti has, too. That a combination of the unstoppable movement towards efficient offensive systems and the NBA’s legislative decisions to maximize freedom of movement (and, let’s admit, aesthetically-pleasing ball) has made it too damn hard to defend. Fourteen of the 15 best single-season offensive ratings have occurred either this season or during the 2022-23 season (shout out to the 2020-21 Nets for being the lone outlier).

For the 2013-14 season, 23 teams had an offensive rating under 110; this season, only four teams have an offensive rating under 110. Defense has always been difficult in the NBA and now it seems impossible sometimes. I wonder how that continues to change team-building across the league and if the NBA tries to do anything from a rules perspective to shift things back even just a smidge.

Amick: This is more “under the radar” than it is “underappreciated,” but I’m going with it nonetheless: the continued ascension of international stars in today’s NBA game, and the inability of the league’s best young American talents to live up to their expectations. Here’s looking at you, Ja Morant and Zion Williamson.

While Morant was derailing the Grizzlies’ big-picture plan with his poor off-court choices, and Williamson was making life hard on the Pelicans by being underwhelming and/or overweight far too often, we saw the Sixers’ Joel Embiid (Cameroon/France) win his first MVP; the Nuggets’ two-time MVP, Jokić (Serbia), win his first title (and NBA Finals MVP);  the Bucks’ two-time MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo, (Nigeria/Greece) continue to dominate (I voted him MVP for last season); the Mavericks’ Luka Dončić (Slovenia) look like an eventual MVP and the Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Canada) play so well that he belongs in this same sentence.

If you somehow weren’t aware, the league’s last five MVPs have been international players. Before that stretch began, the award went to an American-born player for 11 consecutive seasons after Dallas’ Dirk Nowitzki (Germany) won the honor for the 2006-07 season.

At some point, American legends like LeBron James, Steph Curry and Kevin Durant will be gone for good. But as for the question of “Who’s next?” to be perennial MVP contenders on the American front, the answer remains unclear. As it stands, I’m voting for the Timberwolves’ Anthony Edwards and the Pacers’ Tyrese Haliburton.

Robbins: Teams from small markets and mid-sized markets are having a moment. We’ve already mentioned the reigning champion Nuggets, who hail from a mid-sized market by NBA standards.

The Bucks remain one of the league’s top contenders, and they added Lillard to go along with Antetokounmpo. The Oklahoma City Thunder are set up for years of sustained success. The Indiana Pacers are on the rise, with Haliburton emerging as a bona fide star. And the Sacramento Kings are enjoying their second consecutive strong season. The Orlando Magic are on the rise. The San Antonio Spurs won the lottery and now have Victor Wembanyama. And let’s not forget the ascendance of the Minnesota Timberwolves, even though the Minneapolis/St. Paul market arguably is the largest of the NBA’s mid-sized markets.

As David Stern told me in 2012: “Smart drafting is a wonderful thing. A smart free-agent signing is a wonderful thing. Smart trades are a wonderful thing, and that’s a function of management.”

The Bucks, Kings, Magic, Nuggets, Pacers, Thunder and Timberwolves exemplify what Stern was talking about. Smart drafting and smart trades can be the equalizers for small-market and mid-market franchises.

Tyrese Haliburton has led the Pacers to an 18-14 record and a runner-up finish in the In-Season Tournament. (Bill Streicher / USA Today)

Which young player — 24 or younger — in the league do you expect to make the biggest leap in 2024? 

Vorkunov: It’s the large, mobile, immensely talented unicorn big man playing out his rookie season in the Western Conference. I’m talking about Chet Holmgren, of course. I’m not sure if this is the exact right answer to this question because I’m not sure if by “leap” we’re talking about quality of play or a player in our hearts and minds, but I’m taking Holmgren here nonetheless. I think people are going to start noticing and talking about how damn good he’s been, he is and how good he will be. Maybe it’ll just take the 2024 playoffs to turn heads on a fabulous OKC team. Holmgren has been the best big man playing his first NBA games this season, better than even Wembanyama. I think the playoffs will be a coming-out party for him, and then I’m excited to see how good he’ll be next fall when he starts Year 3.

Chet Holmgren has been impressive in his first season playing NBA games for the Thunder. He's 10th so far in EPM and his career trajectory on DARKO already puts him in some pretty good company with some notable bigs further in their careers, despite this being his rookie year. pic.twitter.com/YzA8x7nST8

— Mike Vorkunov (@MikeVorkunov) January 2, 2024

Amick: Well I showed my hand in the earlier diatribe about the league’s youngest, American-born stars, but I’m going with Edwards here. And for those of you who might argue that the 22-year-old has already taken the proverbial leap — like Bleacher Report did in a hilarious video — I beg to differ. Or, to put it another way, I think he has at least one more leap in him.

Edwards’ game has already evolved impressively, as he has taken the lead offensively (a team-high 26.3 points per game) while also taking serious pride in his head-of-the-snake role on the defensive end for a team that leads the league in that department (their defensive rating of 108.2 is well ahead of No. 2 Philadelphia’s 110.0). But there is plenty of room for more growth, with Edwards’ Team USA experience last summer foreshadowing some of these issues that remain.

As Edwards is always willing to acknowledge, he needs to continue growing as a playmaker. For example, his assist-to-turnover ratio (1.53) is tied with Antetokounmpo for the worst among the league’s top seven highest-usage players. I’m nitpicking here, to be sure, but this is one of those with-great-power-comes-great-responsibility sort of things.

Edwards is fully capable of making an even greater, more efficient, impact here in the same way that — wait for it — Michael Jordan learned to during his early years all those decades ago. And because Minnesota’s offense is a measly 19th in the league’s rankings, with veteran point guard Mike Conley helping mightily along the way, the Timberwolves could use all the Edwards improvements they can get.

He can get better defensively, too, especially when it comes to off-ball defense. As our Fred Katz detailed (with video) in his story about the Knicks’ win over the Timberwolves in Madison Square Garden on New Year’s Day, Edwards’ ball-watching helped the newest Knicks player, OG Anunoby, get off to a good start in the Big Apple. Make no mistake, this tendency to get caught sleeping and give up easy looks at the rim off of quick cuts is an issue that the Timberwolves coaching staff would like to see — like 2023 — in their rearview mirror.

Robbins: My top choice is Edwards, but my buddy Sam made that case expertly.

So, here’s the person who just barely trails Edwards as my runner-up: Tyrese Maxey.

With more opportunities now that James Harden is with the Clippers, Maxey has taken another step forward for Philly. The 23-year-old is averaging 26.1 points and 6.5 assists per game, both career highs.

More importantly, he has teamed with Embiid to lead Philly to the third-best record in the East.

Maxey will have his chance to take yet another leap in the playoffs.

Anthony Edwards has taken his game to a new level this season. (Bruce Kluckhohn / USA Today)

Which team is best positioned for 2024?

Vorkunov: I was tempted to go with OKC, but instead I’ll go with a team that’s got a little bit more of a short-term timeline: Milwaukee. After some early season blips, the Bucks have gotten their stuff together. Since Nov. 15, they’re tied with the Celtics for the third-best point differential (9.0) in the league, they’ve got the fourth-best net rating (8.5), and the Bucks are tied with the Celtics for the best record in that span. The defense has still been mid, but the offense, wowza, has been firing to the tune of 123.6 points per 100 possessions — best in the NBA. So yeah, the Bucks are looking good right now. Who knew that pairing up Dame and Giannis could mean good things for your title hopes?

Amick: But Vork, here’s where I’ll push back on your pick: A “short-term timeline” comes with big-time pressure, which means the Bucks either need to win the whole damn thing this season or run the risk of sparking serious frustration internally if they fall short. With that in mind, I’ll go ahead and make that OKC pick that you passed on (thanks for the oop!).

As this story details, the Thunder have “the deepest collection of draft picks in NBA history.” To have that powerful position while also having the team with the second-best record in the West (and fourth-best in the league) is the kind of thing I can’t ever remember seeing in my 20 years covering the league (feel free to correct me in the comments section).

That sort of terrific two-fer gives the Thunder a luxury that the Bucks and other all-in teams like them don’t have: time to be patient and to compete at an elite level while pondering their next major move. And going forward, with the Thunder armed with the kind of assets that put them in all conversations about roster upgrades, it will be wildly fascinating to see how Presti decides to proceed with this remarkable rebuild.

Robbins: I agree with Sam: Oklahoma City is the league’s best-positioned team for the long term.

But the question asked for the team that’s best positioned for 2024, not the five or so years after that.

And for that reason, I’m going with the Nuggets.

Boston’s depth is a concern. Milwaukee’s defense has taken a significant step backward. And the Thunder are too young to win a title.

Denver is the safest — and best — pick here. No one could stop Jokić last postseason, and he’s durable. And now the Nuggets have the experience to know what it takes to win a championship. It will be imperative for the Nuggets to add more depth at the deadline and wrest the top seed in the West from the Timberwolves and Thunder.

Please make a bold prediction for the year ahead. 

Vorkunov: The NBA will have its sixth straight season without a repeat champion. It’s too hard to point to a definitive favorite right now and if the choice is the Nuggets or the field, then take the field. The Celtics are good. The Bucks are too. The Thunder are making a push to show that their title window might already be here (second-best defense, third-best net rating, 58-win pace). The 76ers have Embiid and Maxey. The Wolves might be for real. The Clippers could stay healthy. The Heat are the Heat. So it’s worth saying again: this is the year to take the field. It seems like we’ll get a great postseason.

Amick: Kawhi Leonard will play in 60-plus games for the first time since his title-winning season in Toronto (2018-19).

In this anti-load management season in which the NBA’s player participation policy has been aimed at getting stars back on the floor, the league’s load management leader has stunned the basketball world by playing in 28 of the Clippers’ 32 games so far. Leonard is on pace to play 71 games, which would be reminiscent of his best seasons with the Spurs (2015-16 and 2016-17). We’re getting to enjoy the self-proclaimed “fun guy” regularly again, and he’s a whole lot of fun to watch.

More specifically, Leonard’s choice to return from a four-game absence from a hip injury to help the Clippers beat Miami on Monday night spoke volumes about the way he’s handling this season. In all, he’s averaging 24.4 points (52.2 percent shooting overall, 42.8 percent on threes, and 87.2 percent from the line), 5.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.6 steals and 0.7 blocks so far. More importantly, he boasts a team-best plus-minus mark of plus-8.1 (Paul George is second at plus-6.1, and newcomer James Harden is third at plus-5.1).

While Leonard would surely argue that it’s all just a coincidence and that all of the games he missed in his first four Clippers seasons were necessary, it seems like he’s making far more of an effort to be available these days. If this trend continues, the Clippers — who have won 12 of their last 14 games and dropped games to Oklahoma City and Boston while Leonard was out — will likely be in the title-contention mix.

Robbins: The Nuggets will repeat as NBA champs, defeating the Sixers in the NBA Finals in six games.

GO DEEPER

NBA MVP Tiers: Embiid, SGA are front-runners; who's waiting in the wings?

(Top photo of Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokić: Jack Dempsey / pool via USA Today)