All year long, it’s been said that Texas might not be back, but Texas is different. Well, The Athletic interviewed 11 Big 12 coaches (they were granted anonymity to scout candidly) who have played the Longhorns this year, and their consensus is the Longhorns are indeed back. They were effusive in their praise for head coach Steve Sarkisian and his staff as they evaluated how No. 3 Texas stacks up against No. 2 Washington in the Sugar Bowl, a College Football Playoff semifinal.
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“It’s the best Texas team I’ve seen in years,” said a Big 12 offensive analyst. “It’s not even close. Outside of the talent, it’s the most disciplined, as well as the toughest. They were always gonna be the most talented, but we always thought we’d be the tougher team and we could get to them mentally.
“I think they’re very disciplined, more so than they’ve ever been. That’s a great compliment to Sark.”
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Scouting the defensive tackles: The root of success
Sarkisian has always been an offensive whiz, but the identity of this team is rooted in Texas’s dominant defensive tackles. The Longhorns are No. 4 in the country in run defense, allowing 80.9 yards per game. Two years ago, Texas ranked No. 114.
“You can’t run the ball on them because of their defensive tackles,” said one Big 12 staffer. “You can’t run the ball inside on those guys. Don’t even try it. They change the math on you. (T’Vondre) Sweat is like 360 and can move the way he can? It doesn’t make sense. If you spend two to block him, he’s gonna beat the double team. They have four (defensive tackles) and none of them suck. They haven’t recruited great everywhere, but they’ve recruited great there.
“Oklahoma State wanted to run the ball because that’s what they’re good at, and they couldn’t. K-State kept trying to run it on them because that’s who they are, and they couldn’t.”
Kansas State had at least 138 rushing yards in every other game this season. Against Texas on Nov. 4, the Wildcats gained 30 yards on 29 carries. They’d averaged at least 3.9 yards per carry in every other game but finished at just 1.0 against Texas. In the Big 12 Championship Game, Oklahoma State was held to a season-low 31 rushing yards, and All-American running back Ollie Gordon II, who entered the championship averaging more than 6.5 yards per carry, averaged 2.6 yards on 13 carries.
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The 6-foot-4, 362-pound Sweat, a former three-star recruit who has blossomed into a potential first-round NFL prospect, has made 42 tackles with eight TFLs and seven QB hurries. Junior Byron Murphy II is even more disruptive. He’s produced eight TFLs, five sacks and seven QB hurries.
“I can’t imagine two better than (Murphy and Sweat),” said a Big 12 defensive line coach who recruited both and marveled at Sweat’s transformation from a defensive end prospect. “(Sweat) was 249 pounds back then. He was good, a skilled edge guy. He’s always been nimble and agile, but now he’s just so much larger. Murphy plays nasty and with leverage.”
“Sweat is one of the biggest dudes I’ve ever played,” said a long-time Big 12 O-line coach. “(Murphy) is different. He was one of the hardest guys to block we’ve faced. He’s actually more of a problem. I’d rather play against (Sweat) than (Murphy). Texas is so strong up the middle with the defensive tackles and (linebacker Jaylan Ford).”
Ford, a senior, made 119 tackles with 10 TFLs last year. This season, he has 91 tackles, 10.5 TFLs and two interceptions.
“You can tell he’s a smart player,” said the O-line coach. “He is always in the right spot.” Five-star freshman Anthony Hill Jr., a 6-foot-3, 235-pounder former high school sprint champion, has wowed rival coaches. He’s made 63 tackles with 7.5 TFLs and five sacks, two of them against Alabama.
“That kid is a hell of a talent,” said the offensive line coach. “Texas has some real dudes in that front seven.”
Sophomore Ethan Burke has become a productive edge rusher with 8.5 TFLs and 5.5 sacks. “He has really come into his own,” said a Big 12 offensive analyst. “They play hard. (Defensive coordinator) Pete (Kwiatkowski) has them disciplined.”
The line coach said he can’t wait to see the matchup between the Texas defensive front and the Washington offensive line.
“I think Washington’s line is frickin’ good,” he said. “(Offensive line coach) Scott Huff does a hell of a job. With Texas, I think you gotta scheme ’em, get ’em moving and get ’em tired. If you go slow, they’re really tough. You gotta go fast to wear ’em out.”
Scouting the secondary: Some issues could arise
Coaches think the Longhorns will have issues in the back end, especially against an explosive Huskies offense featuring quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and three stud wideouts.
“Their secondary is the one thing you can take advantage of,” said a Big 12 staffer.
“I’m not impressed with that secondary,” said a Big 12 defensive backs coach who has seen a lot of the Texas defense on crossover film. “If you can protect up front, you can get yards against these dudes. I do think (freshman) Malik Muhammad (28 tackles, four passes broken up, one INT) will be damn good. He’s physical and very smart.”
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“I wouldn’t call their DBs a weak link,” said a Big 12 analyst, “but they can get exposed a little bit.” The coach said Ryan Watts, a senior cornerback, is really long and physical but “handsy and is a little stiff.” Safety Jerrin Thompson is a “leader” who gets everything lined up. But: “The most talented one is Muhammad. We all wanted him.”
Most of the coaches pointed out that Texas really didn’t have to face a bunch of explosive passing attacks. It did face Oklahoma and Dillon Gabriel, and that was the one game it lost.
“Washington throws it downfield better than OU does — and they have a lot better receivers,” said a Big 12 staffer. “ I’m curious to see how those Texas DBs hold up.”
Scouting QB Quinn Ewers: Overhyped?
Four years ago, Quinn Ewers was the highest-rated QB prospect the online recruiting services had ever evaluated. He began his career at Ohio State but was deep on the bench before transferring home to Texas. He had some good moments in 2022, particularly his play in a quarter against Alabama, where he lit up the Tide defense before he left the game with a shoulder injury.
He was inconsistent the rest of that season but had a terrific offseason, got into much better shape and came back more mature. The Texas quarterback has taken a good step forward in 2023. His completion percentage has jumped from 58 percent to 71 percent. He’s thrown 21 TDs and six INTs, but he is a polarizing topic among the coaches who have faced him this year.
“I’m not very high on him,” said a Big 12 defensive backs coach. “He can make every throw, but he’s been overhyped. The pieces around him are very good. Sometimes you watch him and you’re like, ‘Dude, what are you doing?’”
“I don’t think he’s an elite NFL prospect from what I’ve seen,” said a Big 12 staffer. “But for what Texas is doing, I don’t think he has to be. It’s just distributing the ball and not putting it in jeopardy. He plays so calm and cool. I think you can tell when their script ends — maybe it’s 20 plays or whatever. He feels good about it and goes out there and lets it rip. (After that) it seems like his aggression or confidence is gone. Maybe he gets gun-shy or maybe that’s what they tell him. Don’t take unnecessary risks.”
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“Kids get hyped and it can be unfair to them. But I think he is a really good player,” said a Big 12 offensive analyst. “Sometimes you have to go through some learning and bumps, but he’s matured and from the outside looking in, I think he’s handled it well.
“He can make some throws with pressure in his face. I think he’s a tough kid who doesn’t get rattled easily. It’s cool to see that kid’s progress. People wanted him to be Pat Mahomes at 18. Pat got better and better and better. That’s a lot to put on an 18-year old.”
“I think, to some degree, he’s overrated,” said a defensive coordinator who played Texas in the first half of the season. “The (Texas) skill makes him. He doesn’t make the skill.”
Scouting the offense: Great skill players behind a great O-line
Texas has a deep, talented collection of receivers. Xavier Worthy leads the Longhorns with 73 catches for 969 yards and five TDs. Georgia transfer Adonai Mitchell is another talented wideout and ranks second with 51 catches for 813 yards and a team-high 10 TDs. Ja’Tavion Sanders, a dynamic tight end, is a matchup nightmare. He averages 16 yards per reception on 39 catches. Jordan Whittington (38 catches for 435 yards) is another player Ewers has much faith in.
“I think the Whittington kid makes them go,” said one Big 12 head coach. “He’s the dirty work guy, and he’s fully bought into his role.”
“The most impressive thing about Texas offensively is the perimeter skill,” said a defensive coordinator who faced UT in the first half of the season. “What makes them a tough out will be that these teams will try to cover them and play their defense as they normally do, but their receivers are close to uncoverable, so it’s best to work to eliminate big perimeter plays and make them work and bog them down. Alabama couldn’t cover them, and if they played again, the Tide still couldn’t.”
“A.D. (Mitchell) is elite athletically,” said a Big 12 staffer. “But I was more scared of Worthy personally because of his speed and elusiveness. (Sanders) is also a matchup nightmare. Those three scare the s— out of you.”
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“They have the best receivers we’ve seen in two years,” said a Big 12 defensive analyst. “Those guys are great.”
Texas’ skill group would be even more dangerous if sophomore running back Jonathon Brooks (1,139 rushing yards to go with 25 receptions) wasn’t lost for the rest of the season due to an ACL injury suffered in mid-November.
“Brooks was really good,” said a Big 12 secondary coach. “He was so dynamic, but the guys behind him are also really good.”
CJ Baxter has rushed for 595 yards and went for 117 against Iowa State, which trailed only Texas in run defense in the Big 12. Jaydon Blue ran for 339 yards, including 121 yards against Texas Tech.
It helps that Texas has its best offensive line in more than a decade.
“They look like an SEC West team,” said a Big 12 defensive line coach. “They’re really big and well-coached. They want to pound you in the run game. I know people see the receivers and think of Sark as this guy who loves to take big shots, but the main thing they want to do is pound you.
“You saw it in that first game against Alabama. (Left tackle Kelvin) Banks is the most talented one. He gets his hands on you from a distance and he doesn’t panic.”
Sarkisian’s rep as a play caller is something that most of the coaches brought up. Each said it’s very deserving. Texas does lead the nation in scoring against ranked opponents, averaging 38 points per game. Coaches said Sarkisian has a great feel for knowing how to attack coverages and that he’s very creative, especially with how he uses his players and motions to force defensive movement.
“He has little-to-no tendencies,” said one Big 12 defensive analyst. “If he has one, he breaks it the next week. His in-game adjustments are elite. We played a stack man concept to a route we thought was coming and he had a counter that we had never seen that was something off an And1 mix tape. He’s patient in his play calling as he leans on the run game and perimeter pass game and is very calculated when he takes shots.
“In my opinion, the fact he didn’t get Big 12 Coach of the Year was as big a snub as I’ve seen considering the job he’s done with this team. The sad part is, it’s the coaches that vote on this, so it tells you it’s more about Texas leaving the conference than who is the most deserving coach.”
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Who wins: Texas or Washington?
With almost a month to prepare for Washington, coaches expect Sarkisian to be at his creative best to get the Longhorns off to a fast start.
“You know Sark is gonna come out with some s—,” said a Big 12 assistant. “Him starting off games is as good as anybody.”
A Big 12 defensive analyst said that, for as much respect as he has for Sarkisian and for Texas’ talent, he does have some doubt about the Longhorns’ resolve under pressure. “The Big 12 ain’t close to the SEC,” the coach said. “Oklahoma, who I think is just OK, beat ’em. I don’t know how great they’ll be in adverse situations.”
Worth noting: In the past two seasons, Texas is 5-6 in games decided by seven points or less and 5-5 against ranked opponents. Washington is 10-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and 9-0 vs. Top 25 teams.
(Top photo of T’Vondre Sweat: Chris Leduc / Icon Sportswire via Getty)