What went wrong for Lincoln Riley and USC in 2023? ‘Something’s really off there’

In USC’s dream scenario, it would be spending the next two weeks preparing for the program’s first-ever trip to the College Football Playoff.

It wasn’t difficult to envision Caleb Williams and Lincoln Riley, along with some impressive skill talent and a marginally improved defense, propelling the Trojans to a Pac-12 title in the league’s final season.

Those were the expectations, internally and externally.

Instead what transpired was a nightmare season that will mercifully end next Wednesday in a Holiday Bowl matchup with 15th-ranked Louisville.

USC won its first six games, but there were plenty of signs that this was not a championship-caliber team. The defense, a huge issue down the stretch in 2022, imploded midseason and never recovered. USC lost five of its last six games — punctuated by an embarrassing 38-20 defeat at home to UCLA in the finale — and limps into the bowl game with a 7-5 record.

“I wouldn’t sit there and say any part of it was good enough,” Riley told The Athletic in November. “I don’t have any excuses. I don’t think you leave a season like this feeling any piece of it was good enough.”

How did a season that opened with so much promise go so poorly? How did a USC team with some of the highest expectations since Pete Carroll roamed the sidelines turn into college football’s biggest disappointment? And what do Riley and the program have to address to fix it?

The Athletic spoke with several coaches and staffers around the Pac-12 to identify some of the program’s issues. They were granted anonymity so they could speak freely.

Defense was always going to be a major concern heading into the 2023 season.

The program did not sign a linebacker or defensive back during the 2020 recruiting cycle. The Trojans landed high-profile defensive prospects during the 2021 cycle — Clay Helton’s last class — but those players have not come close to living up to their rankings. The defensive personnel was subpar when Riley took over.

Even though the Trojans had benefited from turnover luck in 2022 — their plus-1.50 per game margin led the nation — defensive coordinator Alex Grinch looked like a coach without answers (or suitable personnel) during the second half of the season, and the performances were flat-out embarrassing in the Pac-12 title game loss to Utah and the Cotton Bowl collapse against Tulane.

The staff made a concerted effort to address the talent deficit in the offseason. USC added Bear Alexander (Georgia), Kyon Barrs (Arizona), Jack Sullivan (Purdue) and Anthony Lucas (Texas A&M) to its defensive line through the transfer portal. Alexander, Barrs and Sullivan were either starters or major parts of the rotation at Power 5 programs, and Lucas was a top-60 recruit in the 2022 cycle. The Trojans also landed Mason Cobb (Oklahoma State), who was a second-team All-Big 12 linebacker in 2022.

The talent level, at least on paper, improved significantly.

The red flags appeared when San Jose State moved the ball comfortably against USC in Week 0. The defense was decent-to-good in the 3 1/2 games that followed, but something broke at halftime of the Colorado game.

Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch was fired the day after the Trojans gave up 572 yards in a loss at home to Washington. (Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

USC surrendered 27 second-half points, and a blowout turned into a 48-41 escape. After the game, Riley said the defensive issues were not the same as in the year prior, at least “not to the trained eye.” But the Trojans gave up 41 points in a triple-overtime win against Arizona the following week and never allowed fewer than 34 points the rest of the season.

Despite better personnel, somehow the results were worse. The run defense was still getting thrashed. The tackling was bad. Countless busts led to far too many big plays. And poor discipline — two personal foul penalties by Alexander — cost USC in a painful loss at home to Utah.

“It was like a bunch of mercenaries, just trying to get their own stats,” a Pac-12 head coach said. “They were all over the place. You’d toss it outside, and you’d see their guys going all over the place, so undisciplined. It was unbelievable. You had no idea what they were trying to get done.”

Those transfers who were supposed to elevate USC’s defense? Alexander played well, but Sullivan, Barrs and Lucas combined for just 5 1/2 tackles for loss.

“The thing I found most troublesome is they kind of got everybody they wanted, defensively, out of the portal last year, and most of those guys (didn’t make an impact), with the exception of Bear Alexander,” a longtime donor and alum said.

The coaching staff either didn’t evaluate properly or mismanaged the talent. Pick your poison.

It all came to a head against Washington in early November when the defense gave up 572 yards (316 rushing) in a 52-42 loss to a top-five Huskies team. It was the third time in Riley’s two seasons that the Trojans scored 40-plus points and lost.

Grinch was fired the next day.

“I’d gone up against Grinch before. It was aggressive, but it was sound,” one Pac-12 offensive coordinator said. “This wasn’t that. This was one of the worst defenses we’ve faced.”

Said another Pac-12 head coach: “They have some talented guys on defense, but they miss a ton of tackles. You see some of these guys and wonder, ‘What’s up with this guy? What’s up with that guy?’”

Defensive line coach Shaun Nua and inside linebackers coach Brian Odom were named co-interim defensive coordinators for the final two games, against Oregon and UCLA. The Trojans lost both, giving up 74 points combined.

Nua offered a rather blunt assessment before the Oregon game: “We can get all the best players here, but if we don’t help them get into the best position to execute, then it doesn’t do us any good.”

The Trojans staff fell well short of that this fall. Entering bowl season, USC ranked 110th nationally in yards per play allowed and 123rd in scoring defense. Earlier this month, Riley hired UCLA defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn to replace Grinch. Lynn orchestrated a tremendous defensive turnaround with the Bruins, but he inherited more talent at UCLA than he will at USC.

“Where is the shutdown corner? Where’s the defensive lineman no one can block?” asked one defensive assistant coach who faced USC early in the season. “Where’s the game-changing linebacker? You don’t really see those difference-makers out there for them that they’ve had in the past.”

Lynn will also be tasked with changing the defense’s mindset, getting the group to play with more physicality and improving its fundamentals. It’s a long list.

USC featured some of the top individual offensive talent in the nation.

“That was one of the first games I’d actually watch the video board to see what they’re doing,” an offensive assistant coach in the Pac-12 said. “You’re watching Caleb like, ‘Oh, s—. Man, he’s impressive.’”

There were times when that individual talent looked electric — the Trojans scored 49 first-half points against Stanford, 34 first-half points against Colorado and 42 points through three quarters against Washington. The stats look nice, too. USC finished the regular season ranked third nationally in yards per play (7.31) and fourth in scoring (41.8 points per game).

But for those who paid close attention, the offense took a step back in 2023.

It wasn’t a good omen when, early in training camp, offensive line coach Josh Henson said, “I thought the D-line was more physical than we were.”

Henson coached a good, experienced unit in 2022 that featured several players who had been together for three or four seasons, most notably sixth-year seniors such as All-American Andrew Vorhees and All-Pac-12 center Brett Neilon.

The loss of that continuity was often overlooked during the offseason, mainly because the staff brought in three highly touted transfers to fill the gaps: Michael Tarquin (Florida), Jarrett Kingston (Washington State) and Emmanuel Pregnon (Wyoming).

It took longer than expected for Pregnon to nail down a starting spot, and he looked like a work in progress throughout the season. Kingston earned a starting role at right guard but was moved to right tackle midway through the season and looked more comfortable there. Tarquin struggled, was benched after seven games and re-entered the transfer portal last weekend.

The offensive line never jelled and was dominated in some of USC’s bigger games against Notre Dame, Oregon and UCLA. The low point was a 3-yard rushing effort against the Bruins in the regular-season finale when the line couldn’t generate consistent push in the run game and struggled to protect Williams.

USC went 13-5 in the Pac-12 in Caleb Williams’ two seasons. (Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)

There were other issues. A receiving unit that was billed as one of the most talented and deepest in the country oddly struggled to get open and make plays. It was clear the group missed the presence of a difference-maker like Jordan Addison.

“(Not having a true No. 1) is part of it, but the bigger thing is when you look at ’em, the route structure, the passing game, the route combinations they try to put together aren’t hard to guard,” the defensive assistant coach said. “They don’t put stress on you that way.”

Theoretically, USC could have relied on the run game more. MarShawn Lloyd added an explosive element that was missing in 2022, but the rushing attack was often ineffective — or Riley simply wasn’t patient enough with it. The Trojans rushed for 100 yards in the first quarter against Utah but finished the game with just 145.

“That program was always about being physical,” one Pac-12 assistant said. “That’s something they have thrived on, but they just didn’t show it anymore. If they came downhill at us, we wouldn’t have been able to hold up. Oregon would knock you around. That’s what they want to do. USC didn’t even try to.”

All of this left far too much pressure on Williams.

But the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner wasn’t perfect this season. He often didn’t play within the structure of the offense and seemed hesitant to take open running lanes at times. He also committed critical turnovers. But all of that became magnified because of the problems around him.

“It’s so much on the quarterback,” the defensive assistant said. “They need to diversify and spread it out a little bit more. If they could slide it back to a little more of a balance and not put so much on the quarterback, that would enhance things for sure.”

Williams will not play in the Holiday Bowl. His time at USC is over. Riley is flirting with transfer portal quarterbacks like Kansas State’s Will Howard, who visited last weekend. The offense would look drastically different with Howard, who isn’t a crisp passer.

Riley might need to reinvent the offense this offseason. That’s not the only place where a reset is needed, though.

In February, a Power 5 assistant who had previously been on staff at USC questioned the program’s toughness.

“That’s the problem with USC. When s— is even and the game is measured by grit,” he said, “you’ll never win (like) that.”

At the time, it seemed like an oversimplification of a bad matchup with Utah, which beat the Trojans twice in 2022, and a once-in-a-decade collapse against Tulane. But this fall, Notre Dame physically bullied USC. A week later, a Utah team ravaged by injury, with its third-string quarterback, won at the Coliseum. And then the Trojans, with nothing to play for, couldn’t have looked any less interested in their regular-season finale against UCLA.

All of that highlights the questions that coaches and staffers along the West Coast have about building a strong culture at USC.

“I don’t know if the priorities of everyone in that building, especially in the locker room, will ever match up to what it was like under Pete back in the early 2000s,” one Pac-12 staffer said. “There’s just so much going on with NIL, all the distractions in L.A. Like, I don’t know if everyone in that building will all have football as priority No. 1. Whereas at Oregon, there’s nothing else to do out there … besides play football and win. They have everyone on the same page.”

USC featured some strong leaders in 2022, such as Vorhees, Neilon, Travis Dye and Tuli Tuipulotu, a former unheralded recruit who always gave maximum effort and turned himself into the nation’s leader in sacks.

The coaching staff added talent from the portal last offseason. But the leadership was never replaced.

“We knew they were a big transfer portal team,” one Pac-12 analyst said. “With that, when teams like that are going well, you have momentum and things are good. But then you have situations like USC had, where people become independent contractors. That can really set you back if you don’t have a good culture.”

The Trojan Walk was also something that came up often in discussions about USC. The players don’t wear team apparel when they get off the bus and walk into the Coliseum. Riley allows the players to dress how they want for home games (they wear team apparel for road games).

“It’s like they think they’re NBA stars walking into an arena,” one of the head coaches said. “They’re wearing designer shorts with dress shoes. Another guy is in tie-dyed sneakers. This team looks like they’re an AAU team.”

Added another staffer: “That promotes individuality. You don’t let Hollywood take over your program. Then you attract the kind of kids where football is not important to them.”

It’s not something that was talked about much in 2022 when USC was having success, but when a season falls so far below expectations, it’s the sort of thing that gets amplified.

When speaking to The Athletic last month, Riley said he believed the perceptions of the culture from the outside are different from what it’s like on the inside. A few days before that, though, in the aftermath of the UCLA game, he said there’s “still clearly a lot of work to be done” in that department.

Culture will be one of the more interesting subplots in what figures to be a pivotal offseason for Riley, whose coaching reputation took a hit this season. He’s never faced this sort of adversity. He lost only 10 games in five seasons at Oklahoma. He has lost seven of his past 14 games at USC.

So many areas need to be addressed. Recruiting is not at the elite level needed to compete for national championships. USC’s 2024 class ranks 17th nationally on the eve of the early signing period.

The defense has to improve. The offense needs fresh ideas. The program has to take steps forward in the areas of evaluation and development. And it has to do all of this without Williams’ transcendent talent as it moves into the Big Ten and competes with Ohio State and Michigan in addition to Oregon and Washington.

The past week-plus has been something of a whirlwind. Riley and Lynn made two widely applauded hires to the defensive staff — North Dakota State head coach Matt Entz (linebackers) and Houston defensive coordinator Doug Belk (defensive backs) — but the program is also expected to lose two former five-star prospects (quarterback Malachi Nelson and corner Domani Jackson) to the transfer portal.

One positive that shouldn’t be overlooked: USC finally has strong leadership with athletic director Jen Cohen.

“With her and Lincoln Riley there, I actually feel good about the direction of USC football and the athletic department,” the donor said. “Now we actually have to go out there and execute.”

That execution is going to require a lot more work than anyone expected for Riley as he heads into Year 3 at USC.

“Something’s really off there, though. I don’t get it,” one of the head coaches said. “It’s like he’s gotta start over now there.”

GO DEEPER

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(Top photo: Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)