Frank Onyeka’s pass bounced up awkwardly around Ivan Toney’s waist. Most strikers in this scenario would have slowed down to control the ball but, without breaking his stride, Toney flicked it with the outside of his right boot over Como’s goalkeeper Pierre Bolchini and calmly slotted it into the empty goal.
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After four months of training away from his team-mates, part of his punishment for 232 breaches of the Football Association’s rules around betting, nobody would have blamed Toney for looking rusty in his first appearance for Brentford since their 1-0 defeat to Liverpool at Anfield in May.
The 27-year-old’s goal in a behind-closed-doors friendly against Como last month demonstrated that being stuck on the sidelines has not diminished his quality and underlined why there is expected to be a battle for his signature over the next few months. Lots of teams are looking for a reliable goalscorer and Toney scored 20 times in the top flight last season — only Erling Haaland (38) and Harry Kane (30) had better records.
Ivan Toney scores in Brentford B’s 2-2 draw with Italian side Como in a behind-closed-doors match this afternoon 🔴⚪ pic.twitter.com/p7d1MXJUH3
— Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) October 3, 2023
Toney’s eight-month suspension finishes on Wednesday, January 16 — right in the middle of a transfer window. Will he be lining up for Brentford against Nottingham Forest that weekend? Or does his future lie elsewhere?
The Athletic breaks down the situation.
What has Toney been up to during his suspension?
Following a year-long investigation, Toney admitted to breaking the FA’s gambling rules and on May 17 an independent regulatory commission handed him a £50,000 fine to go with his ban.
The striker watched Brentford beat Manchester City 1-0 on the final weekend of the 2022-23 season from the stands. In a speech on the pitch afterwards, head coach Thomas Frank pledged to support him and said “I know he will come back even stronger”.
Toney spent a lot of time in the summer on holiday with family and friends. He was encouraged by the club to mentally recharge and visited Ibiza, Mykonos, Dubai, Morocco and Nashville in the United States. He attended the British Grand Prix at Silverstone with Frank, director of football Phil Giles and team-mates Ethan Pinnock, Vitaly Janelt, Mads Roerslev and Rico Henry.
Toney picked up a hamstring injury against Liverpool and was allowed to visit the training ground to work with medical staff on his rehab. Otherwise, he worked with personal trainer Jim Burnside to build up and maintain his fitness at a studio in Bedfordshire.
Toney returned to first-team training on September 18 and Frank held two individual meetings with him that week to discuss how to get him in the best shape possible. The coaching staff came up with a detailed 16-week plan so he is ready for action as soon as the ban ends.
Will Brentford try to keep him?
Toney has been directly involved in 89 goals in 124 appearances for Brentford since he joined them from Peterborough United in August 2020 for £5million. In an ideal world, he would stay and be a central figure in their plans to qualify for Europe.
His deal will only have 18 months left to run in January and the possibility of a contract extension has been raised. But Toney wants to play for a top club and his next contract will probably be the biggest of his career. Brentford have one of the lowest wage bills in the division and their highest-paid players earn around £50,000 to £60,000 a week. Toney could easily double that at another team. The club will keep trying to convince him to stay long-term though, even if it’s unlikely to happen.
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Brentford’s plan is to hold onto their star striker for the rest of the season. Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo will represent the Democratic Republic of Congo and Cameroon respectively at the Africa Cup of Nations, which takes place between January and February. It will leave them short of options up front and selling Toney would only make the situation worse.
They would be able to reinvest the money from any sale straight back into the squad, but finding any replacement would be expensive in the notoriously tricky winter window. Brentford have not ruled out losing Toney in January, but it would have to be a huge offer to tempt them to consider it. So far, no clubs have made contact with them about a potential deal.
Frank was asked before Brentford’s 3-2 victory over West Ham United on Saturday if Toney wants to leave and how much he is worth.
“I hope not, I want him to stay,” he said. “Ivan is happy to stay. He is happy at the club. What happens in the future is impossible to guess about.
“I’m pretty sure I didn’t give an exact number. What I said was the No 6 positions have been sold for £100million plus this summer, which is rare. It’s normally goalscorers who get those numbers. To have a proven goalscorer in the Premier League that is above 20 goals is very valuable.
“It’s not for me to put a price tag on him, it’s down to the club. I’m happy with him, I hope he plays here forever and I’m the coach.”
Who are the leading candidates to sign him?
Toney’s comments during his appearance on the Diary of a CEO podcast in September sent Arsenal fans into a frenzy. Toney admitted he grew up supporting Liverpool but said: “From young, I’ve liked watching Arsenal. How they play and how passionate the fans are.”
It’s a mutual attraction. Arsenal like Toney as he would provide Mikel Arteta with a different profile of striker than Gabriel Jesus and Eddie Nketiah. During his six-and-a-half years in the Premier League with Arsenal and Manchester City, Jesus has never scored more than 14 goals in a single season. Nketiah’s struggles in Saturday’s 1-0 defeat to Newcastle United show he still has room for development.
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The issue for Arsenal is finding a way to pull the deal off. They invested heavily in the summer and need to be wary of financial fair play (FFP) rules, which limit the amount of money clubs are allowed to spend over a three-year period. Declan Rice, Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber arrived for a combined total of around £200m, while they signed David Raya on loan from Brentford. The expectation is Raya’s deal will be made permanent for a total package of £30m, which will add to the financial burden as soon as the club next spend. Arsenal raised around £70m from sales but that was largely due to Folarin Balogun’s €40m move to Monaco.
Arsenal would need to sell big in January to finance a move for Toney or hope the owners advance them another substantial loan. There is a good relationship between the senior figures at Arsenal and Brentford, but it’s unlikely they would be able to agree to a similar arrangement for Toney like they did with Raya. Arsenal might have to wait until next summer and hope he is still on the market.
A move to Brentford’s west London neighbours Chelsea is another option. They are considering Toney, but he turns 28 in March and it would go against their strategy under the Boehly-Clearlake consortium of targeting players 25 and under.
Chelsea’s struggles in the past couple of years might make them a less attractive option, too. They finished below Brentford last season and are currently nine points outside the top four places following Monday night’s dramatic 4-1 victory over Tottenham Hotspur. If Mauricio Pochettino’s side don’t quickly improve, then they face the prospect of another year without European competition.
In the past, Chelsea could compensate for this with the size of salary on offer, but they are more conscious of keeping their wage bill in check. For example, Mykhailo Mudryk and Enzo Fernandez are on much smaller salaries than Chelsea players in the past would receive. It means their rivals could be in a position to offer Toney a better financial package.
Toney is not the only striker on Chelsea’s radar, with them looking at Napoli’s Victor Osimhen, too. The Nigeria international turns 25 next month so fits the age profile, but he could cost a lot more in transfer fees and wages.
Toney seeing out the remainder of his contract and leaving in the summer of 2025 should not be ruled out. It would give him more freedom over which team to join as they would not have to pay a transfer fee, although Brentford will want to avoid that outcome.
Whatever decision Toney makes will have a significant impact on his career. He made his debut for England against Ukraine in March and will be desperate to hit the ground running when he returns to have the best chance of getting into Gareth Southgate’s squad for the 2024 European Championship. Staying at Brentford where he discovered the best form of his career might be the smartest choice for now ahead of seeking a new challenge next summer.
(Additional reporting: James McNicholas and Simon Johnson)
(Top photo: Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)