The Athletic has live coverage of Phillies vs. Diamondbacks in Game 3 of the NLCS.
Somewhere, there’s an executive at TBS drinking a beer stein that’s filled to the brim with a martini. The Phillies and Diamondbacks? They were promised Dodgers vs. Braves, or something equally as sellable. The Phillies have a player who’s as close to a household name as baseball players get, but it’s still not a matchup that pops or sings or razzles or dazzles. How are they going to get the word out about syndicated “Big Bang Theory” reruns now?
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I can’t speak for the folks at Turner Broadcasting, but the real baseball heads are in. Bryce Harper is one of the most watchable players in baseball, but it’s possible that Corbin Carroll might be even more watchable. Both teams are very, very comfortable with their starting pitchers for the first two games of the series. The Phillies should have the better bullpen; the Diamondbacks should have the better defense.
It’s the NLCS. Real baseball heads are giddy. Except the ones who care about one of these two teams. Those people are barfing. Good luck to them.
NLCS Game 1: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Start time: 8:07 p.m. ET on TBS
Pitching matchup: Zac Gallen vs. Zack Wheeler
Game 1 pitching matchup
Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen
2023 stats: 17-9, 3.47 ERA, 210 innings, 220 strikeouts, 1.12 WHIP
If you needed evidence that a team can ride two strong starting pitchers a long way in the postseason, you had to go all the way back to the Phillies of 2022. Also, the Phillies of 2023. Here’s another entry in the canon, with the Diamondbacks feeling exceptionally comfortable with the two pitchers they can line up at the start of any postseason series.
Except, the Diamondbacks actually get to line them up to start the series, this time. They had to open the Wild Card Series with Brandon Pfaadt, and they flipped Merrill Kelly and Gallen in the NLDS to keep them both on regular rest. In the NLCS, though, they can be a normal postseason team and start their best pitchers, 1-2, as the baseball gods intended.
Of course, considering they’re undefeated doing it the wrong way, maybe they should be concerned with the right way. Either way, Gallen is good, and he’s a key part of why the Diamondbacks think they have a chance in any series they play.
Phillies: RHP Zack Wheeler
2023 stats: 13-6, 3.61 ERA, 192 innings, 212 strikeouts, 1.08 WHIP
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Of course, Gallen has to endure less-than-polite taunts. Wheeler gets to bask in the glory of his home crowd. If there has to be a tiebreaker between two vaunted aces who should finish with some Cy Young votes this season, that’s not a bad one. Tie goes to the pitcher at home.
Wheeler made two starts against the Padres in the NLCS last season, and he went 1-0, with a 1.38 ERA. He’s allowed just three earned runs in 13 innings this postseason, with 18 strikeouts. His velocity is as high as it’s been all season, so he’s peaking at the right time.
Let’s make this game interesting, then, with a little wager. The pitcher who loses the game has to add or subtract a K from their first name. We’re talking legally, too. Get the courts involved.
Game 1 X-factor
The small samples of pitcher vs. batter stats
Don’t read anything into head-to-head matchup stats. They’re junk stats. There’s too much small-sample noise. A couple of mistakes from 2019, or whatever, will disproportionately affect the overall stats, which means nothing in 2023.
Yes, but we are simple chimpanzees, looking for patterns everywhere in the world. And the Diamondbacks have a few hitters who aren’t intimidated by Wheeler at all. The combined stats of Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Tommy Pham and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. against Wheeler:
PA: 54
H: 21
BB: 6
HR: 4 (one each)
BA: .438
OBP: .500
SLG: .771
Meaningful? Not in the slightest, unless it is. That’s the x-factor guarantee.
Notable Quotable
“The confidence that we all have is very high, and they’ve earned that. We have restructured the bullpen on the back end specifically, and we would not be — I would not be sitting in this seat right now if it wasn’t for them.”
— Torey Lovullo on a Diamondbacks bullpen that’s holding its own in the postseason so far.
(Top photo of Christian Walker: Norm Hall / Getty Images)