Why the Oilers are preparing to hold on to Cody Ceci this offseason

It appears the Oilers are more likely than not to retain veteran blueliner Cody Ceci, a decision that wouldn’t be without debate.

There’s a pressing need to upgrade both the top four on defence and clear out money to fill out a roster with championship aspirations. Moving Ceci, who struggled last season in that position and carries a $3.25 million cap hit for next season and the following one, checks each of those boxes.

When it comes to creating cap space, the Oilers intend to focus their energy on finding a team to take 24-year-old right winger Kailer Yamamoto and the last year of his $3.1 million AAV contract off their hands. That part makes sense.

Though Yamamoto battled through multiple injuries last season, his production hasn’t been commensurate to that of a top-six winger. The Oilers also have options to replace him in the lineup. Think Warren Foegele, Dylan Holloway, a low-cost free agent or maybe even Raphael Lavoie.

That’s fine and dandy, especially to create financial flexibility, but it has nothing to do with the defence.

On the surface, it seems bizarre, maybe even risky, to even consider having Ceci on the Oilers to start the 2023-24 campaign.

He’d likely be skating alongside Darnell Nurse again, and that pairing had its struggles in the regular season — and was especially awful against the Golden Knights. The Oilers were outscored 8-1 at five-on-five with Ceci on the ice in that series.

Those who feel uneasy — or have a stronger viewpoint — about a potential Ceci return are completely warranted. From this vantage point, Ceci’s spot on the roster is the one that is the most essential to improve for the Oilers to be Stanley Cup contenders by the time the postseason begins.

But the Oilers’ expectation to keep Ceci does have some merit, at least for now.

Let’s start with Ceci’s play. He wasn’t good enough this past season. The Oilers were outshot 681-658 and outscored 58-55 with Ceci at five-on-five with him on the ice.

The Nurse-Ceci pairing just didn’t work well enough consistently enough. Each blueliner played better away from the other.

Coach Jay Woodcroft and assistant Dave Manson tried all the other defencemen on the roster with Nurse for select shifts in the playoffs. In the end, they mostly reverted to putting Nos. 5 and 25 together.

There are reasons for that. Brett Kulak has been solid as an Oiler, but he’s a lefty and his best work has come in a bottom-pairing role. Bumping Vincent Desharnais up to the top four on a full-time basis is a big ask. Really, the feeling is Ceci is the clear-cut internal option.

Also, Ceci was arguably the Oilers’ best defenceman 2021-22, acting as a stabilizing partner for Duncan Keith and Nurse in respective halves of the season. Ceci was paired almost exclusively with Nurse once Woodcroft and Manson were promoted from AHL Bakersfield.

The Oilers had positive shot-attempt and goals-for metrics with Nurse and Ceci together at five-on-five over the last 38 games of that season after the coaching change. Ceci had a 54.7 expected goals percentage, too.

The pairing was excellent early in the 2022 playoffs. The Oilers outscored the Kings and Flames 16-10 with Ceci on the ice in the first two series, a margin that was eventually cut to 18-17 after four games against the Avalanche.

Still, Ceci was someone Leon Draisaitl referred to as “Steady Eddie” for his reliability. Zach Hyman called “irreplaceable” to the team.

The Oilers believe Ceci can at least get back to close to that level of play with a summer of rest and recovery. He played through most of this past season with an injury.

The Oilers also see value in Ceci’s $3.25 million cap hit, which is perfectly reasonable for a No. 4 defenceman. That’s how he’s viewed after Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard combined to dominate down the stretch and in the postseason. The Oilers would be in a good spot from a roster construction standpoint if they could receive 2021-22 levels from Ceci again.

Though another team could see that same value in Ceci and his deal, the Oilers would then have to replace him. That’s a proposition that comes with uncertainty.

It also comes with a high probability of adding salary, which isn’t a desirable result for the Oilers right now. They have roughly $6 million in cap space with as many as seven players to sign or promote from the minors to fill out the roster, which includes Bouchard.

There isn’t exactly a glut of top right defencemen slated to hit the open market, either. Damon Severson, Scott Mayfield, Mathew Dumba, John Klingberg, Radko Gudas and Justin Holl essentially make up the cream of the crop.

They’re expected to get paid handsomely, according to projections from AFP Analytics. They have Severson getting six years and $6.1 million AAV. Mayfield: three years, $3.75 million AAV. Dumba: three years, $4.4 million AAV. Klingberg: three years, $4.62 million AAV. Gudas: three years, $3.23 million AAV. Holl: three years, $3 million AAV.

Using those projections, only Severson is probably out of the Oilers’ price range even if they moved Ceci without taking anything back in return. But the Oilers would likely have to go above the two years left on Ceci’s contract to get one of those players and pay him more money — if just slightly or quite substantially.

Don’t forget, these are only projections. Given the dearth of options available, the Oilers think someone like Mayfield will get at least the four-year, $4 million AAV deal Erik Gudbranson got from Columbus last summer — maybe even 5×5.

And those blueliners who get a lower cap hit than Ceci on their next contracts aren’t upgrades.

Put it together, and the Oilers’ rationale for strongly considering keeping Ceci becomes clearer — whether that’s appetizing or not.

Everything being equal, it would behoove the Oilers to upgrade on Ceci this summer. They have two excellent chances left, maybe three, to win the Cup before a slide is expected. They need another top-four defenceman. With Nurse, Ekholm and Bouchard set — once the latter signs — Ceci is the obvious guy on the outs.

Ideally, the Oilers would be able to add significant money for this spot like getting Erik Karlsson via trade. They’re not. It would take something unforeseen and a big change in philosophy for that to happen.

Not trading Ceci isn’t the best-case scenario, but it’s not like it’s the end of the world, either.

He could rebound and be a sound defender again. Again, that’s the hope internally.

The Oilers are also not expected to be in LTIR to start the season. They’ll accrue cap space throughout the campaign for as long as they aren’t. That would make it even easier to fit in an Ekholm-like upgrade to the defence under the cap before the trade deadline.

Depending on the player, the Oilers might not even have to deal Ceci to make that work. That would allow for more depth when they might need it.

The Oilers were remarkably fortunate when it came to the health of their defencemen this past season. Ceci played hurt but only missed two games in April to prepare for the birth of his first child. The other top-five defencemen — Nurse, Bouchard, Kulak and Ekholm/Tyson Barrie — appeared in all 82 games.

It’s unlikely the Oilers have that same type of luck next season.

Of course, the most important thing is improving the roster regardless of Ceci’s status. That’s the objective at the trade deadline just as it is in the next month.

Because of the Oilers’ salary cap predicament, it might be easier to augment the defence a few weeks into the new year than before or on Canada Day.

Waiting and standing pat comes with caution. It might even be frustrating, especially if Ceci doesn’t revert to form early.

If that’s the road the Oilers choose to take, there’s at least a justification for it — as long as they go all-in before the deadline again.

(Photo: Brace Hemmelgarn / USA Today)