Newcastle are guaranteed European football next season and Thursday evening’s victory over Brighton & Hove Albion brings them within touching distance of a Champions League place.
The club have not competed in the Champions League since 2002-03 and the last time they played in any European competition was in the Europa League under Alan Pardew in 2012-13, reaching the quarter-finals.
A 10-year absence before returning to the Champions League is unusual — and will impact Newcastle’s UEFA coefficient. The Athletic explains what the coefficient is and what effect it will have.
What is a coefficient?
Announced in April 2022, coefficients are the points system that dictate the structure of UEFA’s three club competitions — the Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League.
They not only decide which clubs enter which tournament — and at what stage — but also partially settle the opponents each team will play in them.
There are two types of relevant coefficient — a club coefficient and an association coefficient.
How is a club coefficient calculated?
This is complicated.
Teams earn points every time they are involved in European competition, including the pre-group phase qualifying rounds. The further a team go, the more points they get, with the Champions League weighted more heavily than the Europa League, and the Europa League in turn worth more than the Europa Conference League.
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A club’s coefficient is a rolling calculation, based on the previous five seasons.
Manchester City currently have the best coefficient in European football — despite having never won the Champions League — and are four points clear of Bayern Munich. Three other English clubs — Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United — are also in the top 10.
| Team | Coefficient | |
|---|---|---|
1 | 140.0 | |
2 | 136.0 | |
3 | 126.0 | |
4 | 123.0 | |
5 | 121.0 | |
6 | 112.0 | |
7 | 104.0 | |
8 | 101.0 | |
9 | 98.0 | |
10 | 96.0 |
Bottom-ranked of all 423 teams are Montenegro’s Rudar Pljevlja, who lost 6-0 on aggregate in the first qualifying round of the 2018-19 Europa League.
However, having not played in Europe for a decade, Newcastle currently have a club coefficient of zero.
What about the association coefficient?
So Newcastle have no club coefficient, but they do have one via their national association.
This basically calculates the average success of clubs from a particular country in European competition.
For example, every English club competing in Europe this season (Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal, Manchester United, and West Ham United) will see their points added together and divided by seven — the number of clubs competing.
England currently has the highest total, just ahead of Spain, with Germany, Italy and France rounding out the top five. As with the club coefficients, this covers five years of results.
| Country | Coefficient | |
|---|---|---|
1 | England | 108.141 |
2 | Spain | 92.427 |
3 | Germany | 82.356 |
4 | Italy | 81.069 |
5 | France | 61.164 |
6 | Netherlands | 59.900 |
7 | Portugal | 56.216 |
8 | Belgium | 42.200 |
9 | Scotland | 36.400 |
10 | Austria | 34.000 |
What does this matter — and how are Newcastle affected?
Newcastle have a non-existent club coefficient but a high association coefficient. The Lord giveth with one hand and taketh with the other.
However, all England’s high club coefficient really means is that its clubs will find it easier to qualify for UEFA competitions. Currently topping the rankings, four English sides are guaranteed places in the Champions League group stage. France, in fifth, will only get three.
It means the difference between finishing third and fourth is non-existent, unlike previous years, when the fourth-place side had to qualify for the group phase via a play-off.
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However, despite that easier passage to the group stage thanks to the association coefficient, Newcastle’s club coefficient means they will face one of the most difficult draws in the competition.
Pot One will be made up of the champions of the top six nations, but after that, seeding is based on club coefficient. Israeli side Maccabi Haifa, the lowest-ranked club to reach this season’s group stage, ended up with a group of Paris Saint-Germain, Juventus and Benfica.
Newcastle can expect prestigious away days — but a prodigious challenge in terms of advancing to the last 16.
Coefficients apply exactly the same way in the Europa League and Europa Conference League as in the Champions League, albeit teams are more likely to enter these competitions with a lower club coefficient.
Anything else?
The 2023-24 Champions League is set to be the final season played under the current format.
The number of teams competing will increase from 32 to 36 in 2024-25, with the group stage replaced by an initial ‘Swiss model’ league system. The full complexities of that are explained here, but the coefficients carry one more piece of significance.
Of those four extra places, two will go to the associations with the best coefficient from the previous season. Due to the success of Napoli and the Milan clubs, this would be England and Italy if the changes were hypothetically going to be introduced next season.
Under these guidelines, finishing fifth in the 20-team Premier League could soon secure Champions League qualification.
(Top photo: Players ahead of Newcastle against Benfica in 2013; by Paul Thomas via Getty Images)