The Bengals have been a team of slow starts the last two years, sitting at 5-4 at the bye week in both 2021 and 2022. They’ve also been a team particularly adept at adjusting on the fly, and they feature a quarterback with a core trait for playing his best as the season progresses.
That’s why the 2023 schedule sets up nicely for the two-time defending AFC North champs.
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Despite back-to-back division games to open the season, the Bengals face four of the easier opponents on their slate early, offering the opportunity to pocket wins while figuring themselves out again.
The schedule features more home games at 1 p.m. Sunday than expected (five) but still thrusts the Bengals into the expected spotlight with four in prime time and another four in the sought-after 4 p.m. window for CBS and Fox.
The Bengals have earned the spotlight, and nothing about the order of their opponents in this schedule changes a rosy outlook in Cincinnati.
| Week | Date | Team | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Sept. 10 | 1 p.m. ET | |
2 | Sept. 17 | 1 p.m. ET | |
3 | Sept. 25 | 8:15 p.m. ET | |
4 | Oct. 1 | 1 p.m. ET | |
5 | Oct. 8 | 4:05 p.m. ET | |
6 | Oct. 15 | 1 p.m. ET | |
7 | BYE |  | |
8 | Oct. 29 | 4:25 p.m. ET | |
9 | Nov. 5 | 8:20 p.m. ET | |
10 | Nov. 12 | 1 p.m. ET | |
11 | Nov. 16 | 8:15 p.m. ET | |
12 | Nov. 26 | 1 p.m. ET | |
13 | Dec. 4 | 8:20 p.m. ET | |
14 | Dec. 10 | 1 p.m. ET | |
15 | Dec. 16 | TBD | |
16 | Dec. 23 | 4:30 p.m. ET | |
17 | Dec. 31 | 4:25 p.m. ET | |
18 | TBD | TBD |
Week 1 keys to victory
The keys in Cleveland won’t be much different than they were in the Bengals’ 23-10 victory at Paycor Stadium in December: take advantage of Deshaun Watson’s rust by stopping Nick Chubb. The Bengals’ run defense held Chubb to 2.4 yards per carry in that game while Watson threw a pick to Jessie Bates and played pedestrian quarterback — just as he did much of his six-game stint. Watson will still need more reps to re-find the player the Browns are paying him to be. Cincinnati needs to take advantage of growing pains and not let a dominant day from Chubb bail out Watson. If they do, it would mark the Bengals’ first victory in Cleveland since 2017.
Must-watch game: Bengals at Chiefs, Week 17
Can this be anything other than Bengals-Chiefs on New Year’s Eve? Look, sell the importance of every game on the schedule all you want and there are a number of prime-time, A-list opponents on the slate. But this is a rematch of the last two AFC Championship Games, the fifth meeting between Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow, the first four each decided by three points, coming in Week 17 with playoff stakes almost certainly hanging in the balance as an appetizer before everyone eats a nice meal and drinks until midnight. Yeah, 10 of 10, highest rating imaginable.
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Toughest stretch: Weeks 8-13
Outside of a home game against Houston, this six-game stretch coming out of the bye features five of the toughest games on the schedule. The Bengals go to San Francisco then follow it up hosting Buffalo on “Sunday Night Football.” After Houston, they have a short week to travel to Baltimore for a Thursday nighter before hosting Pittsburgh before another prime-time road game, this time “Monday Night Football” against Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. Cincinnati should be able to find a fast start with a generally favorable early schedule, but this will be the gristly meat of a quest for a third straight division title and premium playoff seed.
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Game that got tougher: Bengals at Ravens, Week 11 (TNF)
These prime-time divisional road games are death traps for the Bengals, and really every AFC North team. Cincinnati went 0-2 last season, losing in Baltimore and Cleveland. AFC North teams have seen a winning-percentage increase of 16 percent when playing a home division game in prime time versus any other slot. Over the last 10 years, Baltimore owns the best winning percentage in the NFL in home prime-time divisional games at 7-1. The lone loss came in Week 17 last year without Lamar Jackson when a miraculous Kenny Pickett touchdown drive in the final minutes pulled off a 16-13 upset for the Steelers. Dating to 2003, the Ravens have played 12 such games and never given up more than 20 points with an average of 13 allowed.
Game that got easier: Rams at Bengals, Week 3 (MNF)
These Bengals prime-time atmospheres have been electric. Putting the first one of the year against a Rams team overflowing with rookies on a gutted roster makes this a tall order, even for Sean McVay. Los Angeles might start to turn a corner later in the season, but that project will take time. Toss in an increased likelihood of health on the interior of the offensive line for dealing with Aaron Donald and Cincinnati enjoys a winning percentage shift with the placement of the Super Bowl 56 rematch.
Game Cincinnati can’t afford to lose: Bengals at Cleveland, Week 1
This topic is a touch dramatic because they can afford to lose any single game. But, if picking, divisional games will go a long way toward deciding their fate this season. The Browns might have snapped the streak last year, beating old friend Baker Mayfield and Carolina 26-24 in Charlotte, but they are 1-13-1 in openers over the last 15 years, failing to cover 66 percent of the time. The Bengals begin the season with eyes on home-field advantage in the playoffs after two years of having to go to Arrowhead to reach the Super Bowl. A loss to the Browns not only breathes early life into a talented roster but fails to take advantage of a nice opportunity to avoid a repeat of last year’s ugly 0-2 start that eventually cost them the location of the AFCCG.
Best trip for fans: Nashville
This trip would lead the way most years, and placing it during the first weekend in October couldn’t fall much better. The weather will still be nice, the town will be popping, and country fans could take in a Thomas Rhett concert Saturday night at Bridgestone Arena, an easy four-hour drive where a fan base frustrated by the dovetail last season will likely be willing to place plenty of quality seats on the market. Solid in every way.
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Predicted record: 12-5
I reserve the right to alter this before my official prediction surfaces once camp concludes, but the Bengals’ roster runs deep. The early portion of the schedule is favorable for a team with oodles of continuity and, barring injury, the Bengals should be a double-digit-win team for the third straight season.
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Predicted division finish: First
1. Bengals, 2. Steelers, 3. Ravens, 4. Browns
This would mark the first time ever a team won the AFC North three years in a row. My days of using history to bet against Burrow are long gone. The rest of the division has done a nice job of building into contenders to knock them off, but the Bengals are on top of the mountain until someone proves capable of dethroning them.
(Top photo: Sam Greene / USA Today)