By Dom Luszczyszyn, Shayna Goldman and Sean Gentille
For a moment there, it seemed like we weren’t going to get a matchup of the Pacific Division’s two best teams.
Vegas and Edmonton both dropped their first round-one games, to Winnipeg and Los Angeles. Both showed a strong finishing kick, winning the final three games of their respective series. And now, here we are — the top seed in the West, with an elite winger who returned from in-season back surgery vs. a team that emerged as a true, top-flight contender after some trade-deadline additions.
McDavid vs. Eichel. Draisaitl vs. Stone. In its own way, Skinner vs. Brossoit. This one should be fun.
The Odds
Many expect this series to be a Pacific division epic and that starts with how tight the series projects to be. The Oilers are favored, but not by a whole lot at just 55 percent. This should be a close one. A very close one.
Going by Net Rating the Oilers rank comfortably ahead of the Golden Knights thanks to their lethal offense which gives them the edge. But the reason it’s not a larger edge is because of the defensive differences between both clubs. The Golden Knights, when fully healthy, are a stingy bunch that don’t give up a whole lot. They face an extremely difficult challenge with Edmonton, but it’s one Vegas is well-equipped to face.
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The other thing that tilts the scales back in Vegas’ favor is home ice “advantage.” It hasn’t been much of one in these playoffs with the home team winning just 38 percent of games (18-29 record), but historically the advantage is larger in the playoffs than it is in the regular season. That gives Vegas a much-needed boost over a high-octane club. If the Oilers were the higher seed their odds would jump three percentage points.
It’s not a lot, but it’s enough to bring this series close to coin-flip territory. The end result is a series that goes at least six games 63 percent of the time.
The Numbers
The Golden Knights may have had the clear offensive edge in Round 1, the Oilers are a totally different opponent. No one measures up to Edmonton’s plus-64 offensive rating.
At five-on-five in the regular season, the Oilers ranked fifth in their expected goal creation and actual goal scoring. Based on the quality of chances created, Edmonton was actually expected to score more than they did.
But the flashiest part of their offense is the power play. No one created more quality looks than the Oilers’ power play in the regular season, or had the finishing. It clicked at the highest rate of any power play unit (32.4 percent) since opportunities were first recorded in 1977. That’s carried into the playoffs, with nine goals on 16 opportunities for a ridiculous 56.3 percent efficiency. The goal rate has been beyond dominant, and is going to be a challenge to continue at this pace. But the offense below the surface is only a shade off of the regular season.
That’s what Vegas has to stack up to, bringing a new challenge from Round 1. Is their defense up to the task?
The Golden Knights allowed more five-on-five shots back in the regular season from the Oilers (about 7.5 more per 60), but had almost a matching expected goal rate to Edmonton and conceded fewer goals. Vegas let fewer scoring chances in Round 1, and just 1.4 goals per 60 against — but the Jets’ offense doesn’t come close to Edmonton’s. The same is true for Winnipeg’s power play compared to the Oilers’ stressing the need for Vegas to tighten up their penalty killing. It was average in the regular season, and is going to be tested in Round 2.
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What may strain Vegas is their power play, which converted on fewer goals than expected both in the regular season and Round 1. The Oilers, on the flip side, allowed more than expected against the Kings. If that theme continues, Vegas is in luck. Otherwise, the special teams battle will handily go to Edmonton.
The Big Question
What should Edmonton do with their top six against a deep Vegas team?
The Oilers have a 1-2 punch that few can contend with. Connor McDavid’s the best player in the world. Leon Draisaitl’s one of the best offensive creators in the league, and he’s dominating already this postseason.
Separated, it gives Edmonton top-six center depth that no one can compete with. Together, it’s a dynamic combination with two elite threats to challenge defenders.
How the Oilers deploy this pair determines the top six around them. Edmonton’s experimented both ways in the regular season and playoffs. But what’s best heading into Round 2?
The Oilers opened the playoffs how they finished the regular season: with McDavid pivoting the top line, and Draisaitl behind him down the middle of the second line with each matching up against one of the Kings’ shutdown centers. But in Games 4, 5, and 6, the duo was reunited, with Evander Kane on the left to complete the trio. In their minutes, Edmonton earned 54.7 percent of the expected goals share and broke even in scoring, 3-3.
A second line of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nick Bjugstad, and Zach Hyman rounded out the top six. The combination was solid in Game 5, but soured in Game 6. The Kings created 18 shot attempts to the Oilers’ two in their five-on-five minutes, and had about 92 percent of the expected goals share.
If Draisaitl and McDavid stick together, the expectation should be minutes against Mark Stone. With Stone on the ice, alongside Chandler Stephenson and Brett Howden, Vegas outscored Winnipeg 5-1 and controlled 59 percent of the expected goals share. That trio was incredibly stingy, allowing just 1.68 expected goals against per 60 back. McDavid and Draisaitl are one of the most dynamic combinations in the league, and would be a lot tougher for Stone’s line to slow down. But if they manage to contain them, the Oilers would be in trouble.
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It’s even tougher to let that duo stick together if the coaches soured on that second line after such an awful Game 6.
But the decision to split McDavid and Draisaitl up also comes with risk because Vegas has depth. Top competition may get a heavy dose of Stone, but William Karlsson and Reilly Smith are readily available to share that workload. Plus the Golden Knights have two righty top-caliber defensemen in Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore to go head-to-head with each Oilers star.
The Oilers coaches have to figure out what’s the best path forward to open the series, and be ready to re-adjust again if necessary. It won’t be surprising if they keep what worked with McDavid and Draisaitl in their three straight wins, despite the second line’s poor Game 6 and a middling goal differential. That decision puts more pressure on their two stars to raise their level because the lineup around them is more imbalanced, but it gives them the ultimate support of each other. But with two elite forces who can drive their own line, the Oilers have options to try and match up against the Golden Knights’ depth.
The X-Factor
Which playoff hero can keep it up to give their team the edge?
The McDavid vs. Eichel dynamic is as obvious as it is important. The series hinges just as much on the performance of Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl and Vegas’ Mark Stone, two elite talents on their own who’ve earned reputations for leveling up during the playoffs.
Stone’s impact on the Golden Knights so far has been surprising for just one reason; he had back surgery in January that ended his regular season. He returned for the series against Winnipeg and needed all of one game to find his stride. In Game 2, a 5-2 Vegas win, he put up two goals, an assist and a 3.81 Game Score, tops on both teams. He finished the series with eight points, generally looking like the play-making, two-way force on the wing we’ve come to expect.
Stone’s presence, and his effect on center Chandler Stephenson in particular, makes the Golden Knights a significantly more dangerous team. Stone and Stephenson have fed off each other, taking turns on setups and finishes. Game 5 against the Jets was a great example; Stone scored his fifth first-minute playoff goal as a Golden Knight, and Stephenson scored 50 seconds into the second period.
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Draisaitl, meanwhile, is the third player in NHL history to have at least 20 goals and 40 assists in their first 40 playoff games. The others? Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux. He had 11 points against the Kings (7G, 4A), thanks in part to his otherworldly production on the power play. He was also on the ice for 10 of the Oilers’ 15 five-on-five goals, though, and played a role in a league-leading 25 scoring chances.
The Rosters
Offensive and Defensive Rating explainer
When it comes to roster construction there is one thing that sets each team apart. The Oilers have the strongest forward group in the playoffs. The Golden Knights have one of the strongest defense corps.
Edmonton’s advantage up front is the reason the Oilers are the favorites in this one and that’s almost entirely because of McDavid and Draisaitl. Without them the team’s forwards grade out barely above average and the Oilers’ hopes live and die by how strong the duo can be in this series. Mission accomplished in Round 1 with Draisaitl and McDavid putting up 11 and 10 points respectively, but this will be a tougher ask.
The Oilers aren’t just the McDavid and Draisaitl show anymore — the reason they’re a legitimate contender is because they have much more to offer around them and that begins with the supporting cast up front. The Oilers have augmented their elite duo with some talented players who play their roles well, though they saw varying degrees of success against the Kings.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman were excellent during the season, but they struggled mightily to limit chances in the playoffs. Hyman’s 3.57 expected goals against per 60 was the worst of the team’s forwards. On the flip side, the struggles of those two are balanced out by the surprising success of the third line (and an unsuspectingly heroic performance from Klim Kostin). The Oilers have struck gold with a combination of Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod, and Derek Ryan on the third line who earned 83 percent of the expected goals in 30 minutes together against the Kings. If they can maintain that and figure out the right mix in the top six the Oilers will have a tough top nine to conquer.
Vegas is equipped to do that with a very deep forward group overall with four solid lines that can play, all of whom ran roughshod over the Jets. Like the Oilers, it all starts with Vegas’ own duo of Jack Eichel and Mark Stone, but the Golden Knights offer a bit more balance throughout the ranks. The object here is to control the game and get the Oilers to play without the puck. Eleven of 12 Golden Knights forwards grade out as above average defensively with the lone holdout being deadline acquisition Ivan Barbashev who looked more than capable in the opening round. He was on the ice for just 1.97 expected goals against per 60 (fourth among forwards) and 66 percent of the expected goals (second). Only Boston and Carolina have a more defensively sound forward group than Vegas.
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Balance and defense will be the key to Vegas keeping up. While Stone and Eichel will be looked upon as leaders here Vegas also boasts strong top-six threats that complement the two stars well.
Jonathan Marchessault is a strong shooting threat to play with Eichel while Chandler Stephenson is a speedy puck carrier that meshes well with Stone. Add the defensively sound William Karlsson paired with the rush-oriented Reilly Smith to the third line and Vegas boasts three pairs with excellent chemistry that fit well together. The emergence of Brett Howden and Michael Amadio helps to augment that as the two have been excellent plug-and-play options for any line in the top nine in the playoffs so far.
There’s no one at McDavid or Draisaitl’s level here, but the death-by-a-thousand-cuts balance can be the difference with the right tools to slow Edmonton’s attack down.
Much more important toward that end goal is Vegas’s defensive top four which ranks as the fourth best in the playoffs behind Boston, Colorado and Carolina.
While a lot of talk in Vegas rightfully centers around Stone and Eichel the team’s two flagship defenders are just as important and were arguably the foundation of the team’s first-round victory. Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore rarely share the ice and anchor their own pairings. And for good reason — both units can dominate on their own thanks to their ability to move the puck and drive offense. In the first round, they both earned 55 percent of the expected goals with Vegas outscoring Winnipeg 5-1 at five-on-five with Theodore on the ice and 9-4 with Pietrangelo on the ice. During the regular season, it was 49-35 and 60-50 respectively.
That’s very tough to beat and it helps that they both have strong defensive defenders by their side to complement their games in Alec Martinez and Brayden McNabb. Add a competent third pair to the mix and Vegas’ blue line looks mighty deep with a large focus on defense. Boston is the only other team that boasts six above-average defenders.
In contrast, the Oilers’ backend is much more flawed, though going 11-7 can help mitigate the damage caused by some of their lesser defenders — and get their most important forwards on the ice more often. Mattias Ekholm is the team’s lone defender who is an actual above-average defender (though Brett Kulak was excellent in the first round) and that offensive slant is why the Oilers will likely have to once again outscore their problems in this series. Having Evan Bouchard and Darnell Nurse fuels that style as both are offense-first defenders, though neither stacks up to Theodore or Pietrangelo in that regard either despite the lesser defense.
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Vegas has two elite number-one defenders and the Oilers have none and that’s a huge advantage for the Golden Knights. It was especially telling against Winnipeg once Josh Morrissey went down and though Edmonton is stronger thanks to its triumvirate of Ekholm, Bouchard and Nurse, those three still don’t compare to Vegas’ dynamic duo.
In between the pipes is the true wild card of the series, one that has the potential to shift the balance in either direction depending on which unproven option can hold things together the longest.
Stuart Skinner has more upside after a strong regular season, but he sure looked shaky in the opening round with 2.4 goals allowed above expected. That’s the worst among the remaining goalies.
Laurent Brossoit was on fire to close the season, earning the starting gig for Vegas in the playoffs and didn’t disappoint. He out-duelled former crease-mate Connor Hellebuyck and earned a respectable 1.2 goals saved above expected off a .914 save percentage. Still, there’s a big difference between facing the anemic and dysfunctional Jets and Edmonton’s juggernaut offense. Will the clock strike midnight?
The Key Matchup
Jack Eichel vs. Connor McDavid
The top two picks in the 2015 NHL Draft have always moved on parallel tracks, starting with the tank fests that landed them in Edmonton and Buffalo, respectively. At the start of their careers, a playoff matchup seemed unlikely; the Oilers and Sabres could only meet up in the Cup final, which was always going to be a tough sell. Once Eichel wound up in Las Vegas, though, it became a matter of time. Now, it’s here.
McDavid gets the edge. No surprise there — and no knock, necessarily, on Eichel. McDavid gets the edge over everyone. He has the highest Offensive Rating in the league, with the capability to create goals on his own, out of nothing, that can’t be ignored. Expecting Eichel to match him blow-for-blow would be unfair.
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Their production this season at even strength, though, might be a little closer than you’d guess. Accounting for the time Eichel missed with a lower-body injury, it was actually near equal; he was 18th in the league with 2.81 points/60, all of two-hundredths of a point behind McDavid. If Eichel can pull off similar production in this series, essentially canceling out the McDavid line’s work at five-on-five, it’d go a long way. McDavid’s point rate at five-on-five does undersell how many chances his line generated though and it’s a testament to his greatness that “unlucky McDavid” scores at the same rate as Eichel.
The power play, of course, is a much larger issue; Vegas’ unit is mediocre, generating 8.47 expected goals/60 and 7.06 actual so far in the postseason. Edmonton’s? A shade under 10 goals/60 expected and 22.9 actual/60. That isn’t a typo. It’s an illustration of the gap between those players and these teams. The matchup might be closer than it looks at five-on-five, but with the man advantage, the difference between the two is monumental.
The Bottom Line
The two best teams in the Pacific square off in what will no doubt be a classic clash of two tremendous titans. It should be a close battle, one which will be determined by whichever team’s strengths shine most. Will the Oilers’ high-octane attack led by a dynamic duo up front be the difference-maker, or will the Golden Knights’ stingy defense led by a dynamic duo on the backend prove too difficult to conquer? Either way — it should make for one of the best series of the playoffs.
References
How these projections performed last season
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Top photo: Stephen R. Sylvanie / USA Today)