Game 5 shows the Maple Leafs still have something to prove in closeout games

TORONTO — Morgan Rielly was asked after Game 5 whether his team was wondering what it had to do to, you know, finally win a closeout game.

Rielly’s two eyes are both basically black, damage from a hard-fought series. His team had just lost with its first chance to close out the Lightning this spring. But he still managed to grin a bit at the question (understandably).

“Always,” he said. “Until it happens.”

Until it happens.

The Leafs still have to prove they can get over that last hurdle at this time of year, deliver a knockout punch, and win a playoff round for the first time in 19 years.

The numbers are pretty mind-boggling: The Leafs are now 0-10 since 2018 with a chance to do the deed and close out a series.

What doomed them with chance No. 1 this spring? Let’s dig into some of the issues.

The Lightning still trail the series but a win Thursday night planted the seed of doubt in their burdened opponents. My Game 5 column:

via @TheAthletic https://t.co/tb2R4xqcvG

— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) April 28, 2023

Problems on D

Justin Holl has quickly become the focal point (again) on the back end after three more goals went in when he was on the ice in Game 5. That’s nine goals against at five-on-five in the series and 14 (!) overall for the Leafs when Holl has been out there.

But it’s not just a Holl issue, nor is it fair to pin all three goals on his shoulders on Thursday night.

For one thing, it’s that pairing — Holl and Mark Giordano, not just Holl — that’s had issues all series keeping the puck out of their own net and just moving it in general. Giordano, at age 39, has had his issues with the pace of play. He’s looked creaky at times.

Also, look closer at some of the goals that have found their way in and the picture is murkier. In short, there’s a lot going on.

Holl takes centre stage on the first Lightning goal in Game 5, for instance, when he tries and fails to blow up Brandon Hagel in the neutral zone. But as Sheldon Keefe pointed out after the game, he’s not out there alone.

Ilya Samsonov doesn’t control the first shot. The net front is left unoccupied by a puck-watching Alex Kerfoot. Which allows Anthony Cirelli to claim the rebound and goal.

Again on Tampa’s second goal, Holl is noticeable. Michael Eyssimont blows by him awkwardly. But there’s no way that puck should beat Samsonov.

Holl is really uninvolved in the third goal, but on the ice anyway. And it’s really the Leafs’ issues controlling the Tampa forecheck that shine brightest. Ross Colton has a free lane to chase the puck down and win it away from Giordano (who couldn’t keep up).

Holl was on the ice for the fourth Lightning goal in Game 4, another shot that needed to be stopped. He was caught out for the third goal that night too, which came when Steven Stamkos got inside position not on Holl, but David Kämpf.

All told, Samsonov has posted a .746 save percentage when Holl has been on the ice. Problems? For sure. But there’s lots going on otherwise.

The Leafs have seen these snowstorms happen with Holl before, when, for whatever reason, the puck just keeps going in the net again and again and again. When it happened early this season, Keefe sidled Holl up to TJ Brodie, and all was righted. But that doesn’t feel like an option right now, not with the kind of difficult minutes Brodie and Jake McCabe are handling — and not with Rielly and Luke Schenn faring well elsewhere.

Keefe and his coaching staff will surely talk about making a change for Game 6, one that would either include Timothy Liljegren or Erik Gustafsson. But it’s hard to see them pulling the trigger at this point. They’re almost committed to this group, deep as they are into the series.

It’s asking a lot (too much!) to stick a defender who hasn’t played in weeks into a Game 6 on the road under the highest of stakes. Liljegren last played on April 13 — more than two weeks ago. And it’s not like he had a strong close to the season.

Gustafsson hasn’t played since April 8.

“We need those guys to be better,” Keefe said of Giordano and Holl.

That’s what the Leafs have to count on: Both guys respond.

The Leafs also dialed back the minutes for both in Game 5.

Holl played just 12:33. Giordano played 16 and change. The two of them mostly played against Tampa’s third and fourth lines (and had some trouble anyway). The Leafs are rightly playing their top two pairs more.

These were how the five-on-five minutes were doled out in Game 5:

• Rielly: 20:04
• McCabe: 19:16
• Brodie: 17:36
• Schenn: 15:22
• Giordano: 12:55
• Holl: 11:16

McCabe and Brodie again checked the Lightning’s top line and held them in check.

Rielly has been among the best Leafs all series. In his last three games, he played 28:13, 27:18, and 26:22.

Keefe might want to juice that up even more in Game 6. Get him and Brodie together some more.

The defence as a whole has had difficulty moving the puck out of their zone cleanly all series. As McCabe said the other day, slowing the Bolts down in the neutral zone would help, so the defenders have a teensy bit more time to move pucks to good places when they get them.

“When we’re able to execute and break out, we’ve had some success,” Rielly said. “When they’re able to turn it over and keep us hemmed in that’s obviously when they get rolling around.”

You can see here how, when the Leafs breeze through the neutral zone, after a quick exit, they become dangerous:

They nearly scored moments later.

It would also help, obviously, if the Leafs had a more rigorous forecheck going themselves.

Get more pressure up ice and suddenly the Lightning won’t be able to break out cleanly out of their zone, which will inhibit their ability to forecheck with such devastation.

Not much cooking on O

Zoom out and the Lightning have generated 39(!) more shot attempts than the Leafs at five-on-five in this series.

They’ve had 42 more scoring chances.

That feels about right given how much of the play in Games 3, 4, and 5 took place in the Leafs’ zone.

The Leafs’ reconfigured top two lines had flurries in Game 5 and even won the territorial advantage. But it wasn’t all that sustained and they were mostly kept to the outside.

Auston Matthews was held without a single shot at five-on-five.

Matthews did score late with the net empty and finished with nine shot attempts overall. He notably missed the net with two glorious opportunities on the Leafs’ first power play.

“We had some good chances we didn’t capitalize on,” Matthews said.

The line tweaks seemed to breathe more life into both John Tavares and William Nylander. It was Tavares’ persistence up ice that led to Rielly putting the Leafs on the board. He finished with five shot attempts at five-on-five and three shots.

Nylander looked more like Nylander playing with Matthews. The puck was on his tape a lot more. He was attacking.

And yet, for much of the night, the stars were relatively quiet. They need to find a way to come through when it matters, not unlike how Matthews asserted himself in the third period of Game 4. There’s still another level of assertiveness (aggression?) that’s arguably needed in these spots, something Matthews even seemed to allude to when he mentioned his team’s somewhat tentative start.

The Lightning, he said, were dictating play early in games.

“I think that’s something that we’d like to clean up and be more of the aggressor in that category,” Matthews said.

Mitch Marner couldn’t beat Andrei Vasilevskiy on a breakaway. Outside of that look, and the Rielly goal, Matthew Knies may have had the best five-on-five opportunity of the night.

Michael Bunting should go back into the lineup for Game 6 and should probably play with Matthews and Nylander. He’s maybe not quite the forechecker that Calle Järnkrok is, or the defender. But he brings a lot more to the table as a creator and someone who can create looks for himself around the net.

Järnkrok has three — three! — shots all series at five-on-five.

Reconfigured lines might look something like this, with one of Sam Lafferty or Zach Aston-Reese coming out (Lafferty would be the pick here):

What that might hopefully solve for the Leafs, beyond Bunting sparking the top six, are the issues in the bottom six.

The Kämpf line was buried in its own zone in Game 5. Shots were 10-1 for the Lightning when they were out there. The Ryan O’Reilly-led third crew was burned on the first Tampa goal and struggled to get much going.

With how well Knies has fit in with Tavares and Marner, that group probably sticks for Game 6 (at least to start), which keeps O’Reilly in that 3C spot for now.

Vasilevskiy over Samsonov

It would have been foolish to write off the best playoff goalie in recent memory.

The Leafs didn’t test Vasilevskiy all that much in Game 5 (only 16 shots in the first two periods), but when they did he was a wall. He probably did his finest work all night on that early Leafs power play when he turned down Järnkrok twice in tight and denied O’Reilly too.

Shortly thereafter, he robbed Nylander.

The score was still tied then.

Andrei Vasilevskiy. (Nick Turchiaro / USA Today)

Not only was Vasilevskiy a lot better than he was previously in the series, but Samsonov also looked skittish at times, uncomfortable even. Nothing much really stuck to him. The second Lightning goal especially stings. It’s a shot from just above the goal line that goes through the five-hole. It’s the kind of goal the Leafs have seen worm its way through in big spots in past postseasons.

The numbers for the two goalies aren’t much different through five games. Samsonov has given up 18 goals on 158 shots while Vasilevskiy has surrendered 21 on 162 shots.

What’s troubling for the Leafs is the possibility of Vasilevskiy doing what he did last year: Getting stronger as the series wears on.

In Games 1-5 of last year’s series, Vasilevskiy had an .880 save percentage. In Games 6 and 7, that number shot to .938.

Samsonov needs to be as close to his equal as possible in Tampa.

Can the Leafs finally get this done — take one small step? There is a lot riding on the answer to that question.

Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference

(Top photo: Steve Russell / Toronto Star via Getty Images)