TAMPA — Scott Harris sat in the dugout at Tropicana Field on Wednesday after the Tigers completed their final workout before Opening Day. As he addressed reporters, Harris gave an update on the construction at Comerica Park. Work on the altered walls and renovated clubhouse is still in progress, but it’s expected to be done before the Tigers’ April 6 home opener.
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“There are a lot of hard hats running around in Detroit, but we expect it to all be done,” Harris said.
That’s kind of how the Tigers’ roster felt, too, on the eve of Opening Day. Most of the biggest decisions have been made, but not everything was 100 percent official.
Still, we have a strong idea of how the Tigers will look for their opening series against the Tampa Bay Rays.
So here’s your first look at the 2023 Detroit Tigers, complete with projections courtesy of FanGraphs’ ZiPS system.
Catcher
ZiPS projection: .226 BA, .286 OBP, 16 HR, 1.7 fWAR
Most interesting stat: Haase has played 234 MLB games. Average his stats across 162 games, and he averages 26 home runs. His power is real.
ZiPS projection: .198 BA, .281 OBP, 9 HR, 1.5 fWAR
Most interesting stat: Rogers played only 38 games in the majors in 2021. But when he was on the roster from May 8 to July 18, the Tigers had a 33-27 record.
Biggest question: We knew Haase had a place on the roster. Now the question is how the Tigers will divide playing time between Rogers and Haase.
Rogers beat out Donny Sands and Andrew Knapp for the Tigers’ second catching job thanks to a terrific spring. He returned from Tommy John surgery like he never missed a beat, perhaps reasserting himself as a part of the future. Rogers is the superior defender, and his strong arm could prove useful with new rules favoring base stealers. “The more we dominate the strike zone, the better his receiving gets, the better his relationship with the pitchers gets,” manager A.J. Hinch said. “The other comfort is what he brings to pitchers outside the strike zone. He can control the running game, whether throwing guys out or blocking pitches. He takes a lot of pressure off our pitchers.”
Rogers’ bat has always been the question, but his swing looked short and smooth this spring.
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“The swing feels good,” Rogers said. “The timing feels good. The catching feels good. I’m ready to go.”
Haase, meanwhile, should get ample at-bats against left-handed pitching. He’s a career .271 hitter against lefties. Haase could also see time in left field.
Infield
ZiPS projection: .235 BA, .324 OBP. 21 HR, 1.6 fWAR
Most interesting stat: Torkelson hit 18 balls with an exit velocity above 100 mph in spring training.
ZiPS projection: .251 BA, .293 OBP, 16 HR, 1.8 fWAR
Most interesting stat: Schoop hit .340 against four-seam fastballs in 2021. Last season, he hit only .189 against fastballs.
ZiPS projection: .246 BA, .289 OBP, 20 HR, 3.4 fWAR
Most interesting stat: Last year seemed rough, but Báez’s 112 wRC+ after June 16 ranked eighth among MLB shortstops in that time span.
ZiPS projection: .228 BA, .308 OBP, 8 HR, 1.5 fWAR
Most interesting stat: Maton hit five home runs this spring, tied for third-most among MLB players. Including the minors, he has never hit more than 10 homers in a professional season.
Biggest question: Schoop is suddenly the biggest question mark in the Tigers’ infield. The veteran second baseman isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, but he will have to produce if he wants to be an everyday player. The Tigers are guaranteed to mix and match, so it’s entirely possible the infield will look different by the day. After a slow start to the spring, Schoop finished camp batting a solid .267 with a .313 on-base percentage. He has played first, second and third this spring, and it’s still not clear how the elimination of the shift will impact Schoop’s otherwise sterling defense at second base.
And of course, all eyes will be on Torkelson, who finished a positive spring hitting .268 with one home run. Those stats might not pop off the page, but Torkelson’s at-bat quality and consistent high exit velocities bode well going into an important sophomore season.
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Outfield
ZiPS projection: .239 BA, .297 OBP, 8 HR, -0.2 fWAR
Most interesting stat: Vierling has hit .307 in 163 MLB at-bats against left-handed pitching.
ZiPS projection: .253 BA, .323 OBP, 14 HR, 2.9 fWAR
Most interesting stat: No player underperformed their expected strikeouts, walks and home runs more than Greene last year. Read FanGraphs for more on the interesting numbers from his rookie season.
ZiPS projection: .266 BA, .346 OBP, 18 HR, 2.7 fWAR
Most interesting stat: Meadows’ last home run in the major leagues was on Oct 2, 2021. In both spring training and the regular season, he has yet to homer in a Tigers uniform.
Biggest question: We’re still learning about Vierling, and we don’t yet know if Greene will emerge as a star like many project. The most interesting thing to watch, though, might be Meadows. After missing so much time last season, Meadows had a slow spring, hitting .240 without a single home run. In 2019, Meadows was an All-Star and worth 4.5 fWAR with the Rays.
Designated hitter
ZiPS projection: .250 BA, .309 OBP, 8 HR, -0.4 fWAR
Most interesting stat: Once a fastball killer, Cabrera had a run value of minus-11 against four-seamers last season, the 11th worst in MLB.
Biggest question: How much will Miggy play? We’ve yet to get a clear answer, but once a series seems like a good guess. That means it will also be intriguing to see how the Tigers use the DH spot on days when Cabrera isn’t in the lineup. Both Meadows and Kerry Carpenter could see plenty of DH at-bats.
Bench
OF Kerry Carpenter
ZiPS projection: .249 BA, .305 OBP, 19 HR, 1.6 fWAR
Most interesting stat: Carpenter had a 128 OPS+ in 113 plate appearances as a rookie last season.
UTIL Ryan Kreidler
ZiPS projection: .221 BA, .300 OBP, 10 HR, 1.8 fWAR
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Most interesting stat: Kreidler swung and missed at 34.3 percent of breaking balls and 31.8 percent of changeups he saw in the majors last season.
UTIL Zach McKinstry
ZiPS projection: .252 BA, .319 OBP, 10 HR, 1.3 fWA
Most interesting stat: McKinstry has hit only .207 against right-handed pitching in 266 MLB at-bats.
Biggest question: What’s the thought process here? A lot of decisions were made over the past two days.
The Tigers are carrying Carpenter and his power potential over Akil Baddoo, whose speed and spark would have brought a different dimension to the team.
“Akil may not be on the Opening Day roster, but he’s very much a part of this team,” Harris said Wednesday. “We’re going to need him at some point this summer. At this point, he got beat out by four other outfielders who have earned their spot on this roster. It’s not a commentary on Akil. It’s more a commentary on how deep our outfield feels right now.”
With Kreidler, the Tigers went for versatility and potential rather than the veteran experience they had in César Hernández, who was in camp on a minor-league deal. Kreidler should play all around the infield and might play some outfield, too.
And Harris made a last-minute acquisition when he added McKinstry on Tuesday. The former Chicago Cubs utility man will jump right into the mix with the Tigers. He’s a left-handed hitter who has a .208 career average in the major leagues but hit .335 with a .417 on-base percentage last year in Triple A.
“We think we can build an environment that can maximize his chances of translating that performance to the big leagues,” Harris said. “The other factor was positionally he fits our roster very well. He can play every infield position except for first base and he has plenty of reps in the corner outfield, so adding another left-handed bat that can play everywhere gives (Hinch) more options to build better lineups and find more advantages where he can.”
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Rotation
ZiPS projection: 132.1 IP, 3.88 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 8.91 K/9, 2.2 fWAR
Most interesting stat: Rodriguez threw his cutter 24.5 percent of the time last season, a career high. Opponents hit .240 against the pitch.
RHP Spencer Turnbull
ZiPS projection: 75 IP, 4.56 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 7.8 K/9, 0.6 fWAR
Most interesting stat: Turnbull has a 3.64 ERA since the start of 2020 but has thrown only 106.2 innings thanks to his 2021 elbow injury.
RHP Matt Manning
ZiPS projection: 96.1 IP, 4.58 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 7.38 K/9, 0.9 fWAR
Most interesting stat: Although his arsenal remains a work in progress, Manning gets top-tier results with his fastball. Opponents hit only .198 against it last season.
LHP Matthew Boyd
ZiPS projection: 91.1 IP, 4.14 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 9.76 K/9, 1.1 fWAR
Most interesting stat: In a short sample last year, opponents whiffed on 58.8 percent of the 36 changeups Boyd threw. Boyd revamped his changeup last year while injured with the Giants.
LHP Joey Wentz
ZiPS projection: 82 IP, 5.05 ERA, 4.98 FIP, 8.12 K/9, -0.1 fWAR
Most interesting stat: Opponents hit only .154 and whiffed 38.9 percent of the time against Wentz’s cutter last season.
Biggest question: How many innings can these guys throw? Including Michael Lorenzen — who will start the year on the injured list with a left groin strain — every member of this rotation missed time for one reason or another last season. That’s reflected in the low innings projections above. Chances these starters beat those predictions easily if they are healthy, but the Tigers plan to be conservative with innings from their starters early in the season.
“I don’t think it’s scripted as much as we’ll be very aware of where each guy is physically, where each guy is competitively in the game,” Hinch said. “It will be shorter rather than longer.”
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Bullpen
RHP Alex Lange
ZiPS projection: 62.3 IP, 3.47 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 0.6 fWAR
Most interesting stat: Lange’s curveball generated a 57.8 percent whiff rate last season, making it one of the elite swing-and-miss pitches in baseball.
RHP José Cisnero
ZiPS projection: 45 IP, 4.20 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 8.60 K/9, -0.1 fWAR
Most interesting stat: Cisnero has a 3.26 ERA since joining the Tigers in 2019, a quietly reliable late-inning option.
RHP Trey Wingenter
ZiPS projection: 41 IP, 4.17 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 11.63 K/9, 0.3 fWAR
Most interesting stat: After getting up 0-1, Wingenter has struck out 73 of 165 batters in his MLB career. That’s a K-rate of 44.2 percent.
RHP Jason Foley
ZiPS projection: 61 IP, 3.84 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 6.79 K/9, 0.5 fWAR
Most interesting stat: Foley’s 57.1 percent ground-ball rate ranked 12th among MLB pitchers who threw at least 50 innings last season.
LHP Tyler Alexander
ZiPS projection: 91.2 IP, 4.81 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 6.18 K/9, 0.3 fWAR
Most interesting stat: Alexander’s whiff rate ranked in the bottom 1 percent of the league last season, but his low 5.9 percent walk rate ranked in the 81st percentile.
RHP Garrett Hill
ZiPS projection: 104.3 IP, 4.66 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 8.37 K/9, 0.6 fWAR
Most interesting stat: Hill had a 4.22 ERA as a starter compared to a 3.57 ERA as a reliever last season.
LHP Chasen Shreve
ZiPS projection: 40 IP, 4.50 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 8.33 K/9, -0.1 fWAR
Most interesting stat: Shreve is slightly better against right-handed batters (.226) than left-handed batters (.231) in his career.
RHP Mason Englert
ZiPS projection: 103.1 IP, 4.18 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 7.78 K/9, 0.7 fWAR
Most interesting stat: The Rule 5 pick has thrown only 15.1 innings above High A.
Biggest question: How will the Tigers handle big situations? Detroit is going into the season with a no-roles bullpen, and after players such as Lange and Cisnero struggled toward the end of spring training, it’s not clear who will get the first crack at being the de facto closer.
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“The games in which these guys pitch in, how many innings they go, what their specific usage is going to be is a work in progress, as it always is,” Hinch said. “You’ve seen I’m not afraid to use anybody at any time. That will continue … I like this bullpen because of the versatility and the length that we have, and I think that will develop into a pretty strong part of our team.”
(Top photo of Riley Greene: Nathan Ray Seebeck / USA Today)