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I remember for the first several years of the College Football Playoff, I could fill half a mailbag just with people furious with something about the committee’s initial rankings. Now, I get the sense that most people saw that Ohio State was No. 1, nodded and went on with their trick-or-treating.
Besides, there are far more interesting things going on right now, from a Michigan spy allegedly infiltrating a MAC team’s sideline to a huge slate of games this weekend to a two-time national championship coach getting into a spat with a radio show caller.
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Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Is the Dabo Swinney meltdown just a bad moment for a pretty good coach, or is it a sign of something bigger? Certainly “Tyler from Spartanburg” took some jabs, and Swinney reacted, but shouldn’t “$11.5 million” create some expectation of your coach not engaging with the “1.5 percent” of fans? — Todd, Greenville SC
First of all, it’s silly in 2023 that some coaches still participate in these call-in shows. It seems like a recipe for disaster. Nick Saban has fun with his, but he rarely (ever?) has to deal with angry callers.
I was mostly Team Dabo on this one. Clemson fans have every right to be frustrated with the direction of the program, but Tyler made it personal. I don’t care how much money Swinney makes, if someone calls you on the phone to tell you you’re arrogant, insult the coach (Tommy Bowden) who hired you, etc., you shouldn’t be expected to just sit back, take it and say, “Thanks for your call.” But Dabo punched down with a few of his jabs. Neither one of them came out of the exchange for the better.
Dabo Swinney gets fired up on his radio call-in show after obnoxious caller asks how he has a $10.5 million salary, calls him arrogant, insults his coaching hires, and compares him to former Clemson HC Tommy Bowden. pic.twitter.com/pfu164e49l
— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) October 31, 2023
You’re seeing a coach who was once the toast of college football dealing with heavy criticism for the first time in a long time and not taking it well. Dabo always has been stubborn and defensive, but it’s particularly exacerbated this season given his team stinks. And while he’s right that he deserves appreciation for the historic success he has brought to Clemson, it’s disingenuous to frame this as “one bad year.” Everyone saw the erosion during the past two seasons that led to this one. Dabo acknowledged something was wrong when he fired offensive coordinator Brandon Streeter after last season. The fact it’s only gotten worse tells you there are more systemic issues.
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Dabo Swinney explodes on 'smart-ass' Clemson fan
It’s going to be interesting to see how Dabo deals with the aftermath of what will probably be a 7-6 type season. I still contend he can turn it around pretty quickly once he embraces the transfer portal. It’s Clemson. It has NIL money. Big-time players will want to go there. Upgrade the offensive skill talent, and it will at least get back to ACC contention if not CFP contention.
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Raynor: Dabo Swinney's response to adversity will be storyline to watch in season's final month
But it’s going to get awkward if seasons like this become the norm, and he just keeps reminding everyone how great he was in 2018. I’d like to believe most Clemson fans (98.5 percent?) still love him and want him to succeed, but even the most loyal diehards will start to lose patience at some point.
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I feel like the wins against Oklahoma and Texas the past few years show Kansas can be a future Big 12 contender. If we can hold on to Lance Leipold, where do you see Kansas’ ceiling the next five years? — Michael from Salt Lake City
In your Final Thoughts column Saturday, you mentioned Kansas likely having a hard time trying to hold on to Leipold for openings at Michigan State or Northwestern. Why would he make that move for a few extra million at what amounts to bottom-third Big Ten jobs when he could be the new Big 12’s version of Mark Stoops? Don’t you think a coach like Luke Fickell would’ve been better off staying at Cincinnati and challenging for a Big 12 title and a Playoff spot every few years, instead of making extra cash and playing in the Outback Bowl at Wisconsin? — Mario Z.
First off, take Northwestern out of there. I wrote that they might pursue him (or at least should pursue him), but I’m under no delusion Leipold or another coach with multiple options would want that job. But to call Michigan State a bottom-third Big Ten job is short-sighted. The Spartans won 10-plus games seven times from 2010-21. They won two Big Ten titles. They went to the Playoff. And they owned the Michigan rivalry for a full decade. Yes, the Wolverines were a mess pre-Jim Harbaugh, but lest you’ve not noticed, he might not be in Ann Arbor much longer.
Even once the four new schools come in, the Michigan State job will rank well within the top half of the league, arguably trailing only Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and USC, perhaps in the same tier as Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin and UCLA. So let that be the starting point for what follows.
The way I look at the new Big 12 is that there will be no real alphas within it, unlike pretty much every other league. Instead, there will be just a lot of strong, somewhat interchangeable programs. Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Arizona are good this year. A couple of years ago, you would have said TCU, Cincinnati, Baylor and Iowa State. A couple of years from now, maybe it’s Arizona State, Colorado, Texas Tech and UCF. Kansas with Leipold can be in any or all of those groups. It’s pretty much there already.
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Mandel's Final Thoughts: Kansas shakes up CFP picture
But in the new world era, this is what that’s going to result in: One of those 16 teams will win the conference in a given year and reach the Playoff. Maybe some years a second will, but that’s it. It will be kind of like the AAC or the Mountain West are in basketball — they’re good enough to put a team in the Final Four, but they rarely get more than a couple of tourney bids. As great a coach as Leipold is, he may need a perfect-storm kind of season to get into the Dance at Lawrence.
Now, here’s what I envision the Big Ten will look like starting next year. Ohio State and/or Michigan will be in the CFP every year, and Penn State every two to three years. Then, depending on who has a great QB or an elite defense in a given year, there may be two at-large spots on top of those. If Leipold went on a run like Mark Dantonio did, he could go to the Playoff every other year or two out of three years. And who knows what happens once he gets in?
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As much as people talk about money, most coaches don’t take jobs because of the salary. The reasoning is closer to, “What is my ultimate career goal, and will I have the leadership, the support and the resources to achieve it at this school? Because if not, I’ve got a perfectly good gig where I am.”
That will likely be the calculus for Leipold.
How likely is it that Michigan’s potential sign-stealing scandal played a role in Harbaugh trying to bolt for the NFL after each of the last two seasons? — Ken D, Atlanta
I don’t think that was the reason. Whether he has known all along about Connor Stalions’ alleged harebrained scouting ring, I’m sure Harbaugh didn’t realize it would become a scandal until the NCAA called a couple of weeks ago. You don’t go telling the world your program is going to be the “gold standard” for compliance if you have any reason to suspect there’s a second investigation brewing.
Harbaugh has not exactly hidden his desire to return to the NFL and probably would be there right now if he hadn’t bombed his interview with the Minnesota Vikings on signing day in 2022. Here’s what he told the Detroit Free Press the day after that episode: “There was a tugging on me that I was once that close to a Super Bowl (with the 49ers), and I didn’t get it. Some NFL jobs came open. I was contacted by the Vikings. For better or worse, it was something I wanted to explore. I went in thinking, ‘I’m gonna have 100 percent conviction on this, and if they have 100 (percent) conviction on this, then it’s something I’m gonna do.”
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Michigan should be punished, say 94% of CFB coaches in our poll. What else did it reveal?
At the time, Harbaugh was coming off a breakthrough 2021 season when Michigan ended its eight-game losing streak to Ohio State and won the Big Ten for the first time in 17 years. Perhaps that felt like a “mission accomplished” moment to him. But he came back the next year and did even better, going 13-0 in the regular season. Yet again, he pursued an NFL job, meeting with the Denver Broncos before making a public statement pledging his loyalty to Michigan. “Don’t try to out-happy, happy. Go Blue!” … And then he met with the Broncos a second time.
Folks, he clearly wants another crack at the NFL. He has hardly been coy about it. And that was before he got suspended three games for allegedly misleading NCAA investigators, not to mention that he is now in danger of yet another lengthy investigation and eventual punishment. He has a small window this season to win a national championship before losing, by his estimation, 20 players to the NFL.
But even if every one of those players was coming back and even if he didn’t have staff members allegedly disguising themselves in Central Michigan gear — if the Chicago Bears come calling, I’m pretty sure he’s going to be gone. Just based entirely on his past actions.
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CMU investigating Stalions' potential presence on sideline
Can J.J. McCarthy make up for a talent deficiency for Michigan if it winds up playing against Georgia in a dome in a Playoff game? — Chris C.
Perhaps. But can he make up for Michigan’s scout not getting to use those Florida-Georgia tickets Stalions allegedly bought for him?
NEW: @TheAthletic has obtained more photos of the goatee'd sunglasses person on the Central Michigan sideline at Michigan State.
CMU is looking into whether this is Connor Stalions.
Story: https://t.co/79siEcZ89r pic.twitter.com/R5AyslTIWF
— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) October 31, 2023
How shocked are you that we are getting to November and no coaches have been fired (other than Mel Tucker for off-field issues)? What do you think the biggest reason is? — Mark, Blackwood, NJ
When you think back to most of the recent early-season firings, they’re coaches who easily could have been fired the previous offseason — think USC’s Clay Helton, Nebraska’s Scott Frost, Arizona State’s Herm Edwards, Colorado’s Karl Dorrell. Or there was at least some discontent starting to brew that exploded once the coach got off to another bad start — LSU’s Ed Orgeron comes to mind. Not many coaches fit that description entering this season, and a couple who did, West Virginia’s Neal Brown and Memphis’ Ryan Silverfield, have had good seasons to date and quieted the noise.
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We have had coaches in recent years who went from almost-hot-seat buzz entering a season to in-season firing in seemingly record time — such as Florida’s Dan Mullen and Wisconsin’s Paul Chryst. I haven’t sensed any comparable firestorms of panic yet this year.
Also: Buyouts are starting to become a problem. Indiana’s Tom Allen, now 2-21 in Big Ten play the past three seasons, ordinarily would be a dead man walking. But IU gave him a big contract after the Hoosiers’ now-misleading top-15 season in 2020 (when it went 6-2), and it’s unclear whether the school can cobble together $20.8 million in buyout money. If it can stomach waiting another year, that number drops to $8 million. If Indiana, currently 2-6, finishes 2-10, my guess is it will pull the trigger, but with that much money at stake, you could understand holding off as long as possible.
As the calendar turns to November, we might see some schools act with more urgency given how quickly the portal window and early signing period arrive once the regular season ends. Houston’s Dana Holgorsen is 3-5 and treading into dangerous territory (although he has a $15 million buyout). Syracuse’s Dino Babers may be on his eighth life. These next two seem less realistic, but you never know: Arkansas’ Sam Pittman and Maryland’s Mike Locksley. At the G5 level, Arkansas State’s Butch Jones and New Mexico’s Danny Gonzales may be living on borrowed time, and San Diego State’s Brady Hoke is going in the wrong direction.
And of course, there’s the Jimbo Fisher question. We haven’t heard a word to this point, but check back if he loses badly to nemesis Lane Kiffin this weekend.
Is Kansas State (6-2) the most underrated team in the nation? If it beats Texas, is this a top-10 team? — Nicholas D.
I guess we’ll find out in a few days, right?
I’m fascinated by this weekend’s K-State at Texas and Oklahoma at Oklahoma State doubleheader because it pits the Big 12’s co-favorites for the first half of the season against the Big 12’s two hottest teams during the past month. Most people outside the conference likely stopped paying attention to the Wildcats and — especially — the Cowboys many weeks ago, and those folks likely don’t realize the extent to which those teams have reinvented themselves in-season.
Oklahoma State was a mess at the start of the year, most notably losing 33-7 at home to South Alabama. Mike Gundy was rotating three quarterbacks, including his son, Gunnar.
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Then two key things happened: He made Alan Bowman the clear starter and stuck with him, and perhaps most notably, Gundy realized he has a sophomore running back named Ollie Gordon II on his team. Gordon, who touched the ball five times in that South Alabama loss, has arguably been the best player in the country during his past three games: 284 rushing/receiving yards against Kansas, 282 rushing yards at West Virginia and 292 rushing/receiving yards against Cincinnati. That’s Barry Sanders-esque. I can’t wait to see him go up against the Sooners.
As for K-State, my preseason Big 12 pick, I temporarily lost faith in the Wildcats, mainly because they lost to Oklahoma State, which at the time I still thought of as a not-good team. But since falling behind 21-17 to Texas Tech on Oct. 14, K-State has outscored the Red Raiders, TCU and Houston 103-3. The big spark for Chris Klieman was breaking out touted freshman quarterback Avery Johnson as a change of pace from Will Howard, although it was mostly Howard and running back DJ Giddens shredding the Cougars last weekend.
The problem is, the rest of the Big 12 is so bad that it’s hard to say whether clobbering TCU and Houston is all that impressive. Texas represents a much better measuring stick this week. If it were in Manhattan, I’d take K-State given Quinn Ewers’ injury. It’s tougher in Austin, although the Horns are only four-point favorites at home.
If K-State wins, it will jump in the rankings, though top 10 might be too optimistic. Regardless, the Wildcats would put themselves in a great position to get back to Arlington.
Which Bay Area ACC games are you excited about attending next year (if any)? — James, Monterey, Calif.
The only one that caught my attention was Miami at Cal. Now watch that be an 11 p.m. ET kickoff on The CW.
I will say, based on what we’ve seen the last two weeks from Stanford’s out-of-nowhere passing attack, it’s possible quarterback Ashton Daniels and wide receivers Elic Ayomanor and Tiger Bachmeier might be must-see TV on any network by next season.
ACC football schedule for 2024: pic.twitter.com/zOoBtK0cLo
— Nicole Auerbach (@NicoleAuerbach) October 30, 2023
It’s 11 p.m. on Saturday, and Missouri has beaten Georgia (in Athens!) to take control of the SEC East. You’re Googling flights to Columbia for the Tennessee game the following week. Read me your Final Thoughts bullet point about what this means for Mizzou. Quick, before I wake up doomed to attend the Liberty Bowl. — Cole B.
Let’s save it for posterity, shall we?
A decade ago they said Missouri would never be able to compete in the SEC. Gary Pinkel seemingly debunked the notion fairly quickly, reaching back-to-back conference championship games, but the East was down, the Tigers got blown out by Auburn and Alabama, and then Pinkel retired, and … well, maybe the naysayers were right all along.
Until Saturday, when Eli Drinkwitz’s Tigers went to Athens and stunned the two-time defending national champion Bulldogs, ending their 25-game winning streak. And this was no “Where on earth did that come from?” performance. The Tigers had been scoring points on people all season, their lone loss coming in a shootout with LSU. Now they’re in the driver’s seat to win a third East division title — only this time, there are no caveats to attach to it. Mizzou is the real deal.
Now please don’t let Missouri lose by 25, have some unaware Georgia fan find this, think it was serious, tweet a screenshot and unleash 1,000 “Clueless Sportswriter Thinks Missouri Beat Georgia” aggregation posts.
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Michigan should be punished, say 94% of CFB coaches in our poll. What else did it reveal?
(Photo of Avery Johnson: Peter G. Aiken / Getty Images)