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Georgia has been ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll all season, and the Bulldogs haven’t dropped from the top spot because they haven’t lost. They’ve had to shake off multiple sluggish starts, erasing second-half deficits against South Carolina and Auburn, but they are finally starting to round into form, as Florida learned last weekend.
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But how does Georgia’s resume stack up against those other College Football Playoff contenders through nine weeks of the season? And if the Bulldogs aren’t No. 1 in the eyes of the selection committee, how far down will they land?
The CFP rankings set to be revealed Tuesday night are the first of five in-season top 25s, released each week through the end of November. They provide a window into the thinking of this year’s selection committee, an understanding of what it values and how it sees these top. As a reminder, it is an incomplete evaluation. But it’s a start, and it can be a signal.
Here are the four most pressing questions heading into the first rankings release.
1. Where will Georgia be ranked?
Don’t be surprised if the Bulldogs are not No. 1 in the first set of rankings. They might not even be in the top four. They have zero wins over current AP Top 25 teams and have turned in some shaky performances. Their best wins are over Florida and Kentucky, which have six losses between them. Upcoming opponents Missouri, Ole Miss and Tennessee are all currently ranked in the AP’s top 20, so there will be opportunities to impress down the stretch. But I could see the committee leaning into resume early and giving itself time to slide Georgia up on the merit of quality wins as the team accumulates them.
Ohio State has two wins over top-12 teams and one of the nation’s best defenses. The committee could give the Buckeyes the nod in the initial rankings — perhaps even giving them extra credit for the win over Penn State with multiple star players out — and adjust later. If Michigan and Ohio State were to play tomorrow, I’d give the edge to the Wolverines. Most AP voters and coaches would agree with me! But that doesn’t mean the committee will keep Michigan (current AP No. 2) ahead of Ohio State (current AP No. 3) if it wants to make a point about the quality of resumes. Those teams will play in a few weeks, and it will all work itself out.
Keep an eye on Florida State, too. The Seminoles have a great win over LSU that looks better the longer Jayden Daniels stays in the Heisman Trophy race. That’s their only Top 25 win at the moment, but they’re the CFP contender with the clearest path to the four-team field.
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2. Does the selection committee care about Michigan’s off-field issues?
Probably not, but this is the set of rankings that will provide a firm answer. Head coach Jim Harbaugh missed the first three games of the season as part of a suspension by Michigan for his involvement in recruiting violations, including impermissible contact with recruits during the COVID-19 dead period, and his failure to cooperate with the related NCAA investigation. Michigan won those three games comfortably, though quarterback J.J. McCarthy did have his worst performance of the season against Bowling Green.
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I doubt those early results will matter considering how ruthlessly efficient the Wolverines have been on both sides of the ball since Harbaugh returned. More importantly, we’ll see whether the committee holds anything against the Wolverines when it comes to the second NCAA investigation underway in Ann Arbor.
The latest investigation is centered on allegations that the Wolverines the NCAA’s in-person scouting rules as part of a sign-stealing operation. Some information about the investigation has been made public through various media reports, but the NCAA has not yet issued an official Notice of Allegations detailing information that has been independently corroborated. The Big Ten has informed Michigan’s future opponents of the allegations that prompted the NCAA investigation, but the conference has not acted, either. So Michigan will continue to play on, chasing a national championship and a third consecutive CFP berth with uncertainty hanging over the program.
It’d be fairly shocking if the selection committee held an ongoing NCAA investigation (or two) over a team that is performing well on the field and remains undefeated. But we’ll get a better sense of whether the committee cares about the alleged wrongdoing when we see the first set of rankings and hear committee chair Boo Corrigan answer questions about the unique circumstances under which the Wolverines are being evaluated.
3. How does the committee order the one-loss contenders?
No team will be locked into any spot after the first set of rankings. But we will get a sense of how the committee views teams that have played head-to-head but enter Week 10 with comparable resumes — like Oklahoma, which handed Texas its only loss so far but lost to Kansas last weekend, or Oregon, which has recently looked like a more complete team than the unbeaten Washington squad that edged the Ducks a few weeks ago. Typically, the committee isn’t afraid to make somewhat controversial decisions; two years ago, it ranked Michigan above Michigan State a few weeks after the Spartans beat the Wolverines, essentially chalking it up to a fluky result.
I imagine Oregon will be the top one-loss team in these rankings, followed by Oklahoma and then Texas, with Alabama ranked behind both of the top Big 12 contenders. That order would adhere to head-to-head principles and essentially match the way AP voters view these teams right now.
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4. How does the Group of 5 race look?
James Madison is 8-0 in its second season in the Sun Belt, which means it is one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country, but the Dukes are eligible for their conference championship game and the CFP because of FCS-to-FBS transition rules. Virginia politicians are getting involved in the fight, but the selection committee will have to operate under the assumption that JMU remains ineligible, which sets up a pretty interesting race for the New Year’s Six bowl spot reserved for the G5’s highest-ranked conference champion. Air Force is 8-0 and ranked highest in the AP Poll (No. 17); we’ll see if the committee views the Falcons similarly. Tulane, which has only lost to Ole Miss, is seeking back-to-back NY6 berths. Liberty is 8-0 in head coach Jamey Chadwell’s first season.
The selection committee does not have to include G5 teams in its rankings, but there should be at least one included in the first top 25 — and that’s enough to give one team a larger bull’s-eye on its back.
(Photo: James Gilbert / Getty Images)