As we enter November, the first College Football Playoff rankings are set to come out, and most conference races remain wide open. Let’s talk New Year’s Six, James Madison’s situation, Ohio and more.
Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
How do you rank the top five candidates for the G5 New Year’s Six beyond Air Force and Tulane? Is it Air Force or the AAC champion or do you think teams like Fresno State, Toledo or Liberty can get it if the Wave or Falcons falter? — Zachary A.
Does Tulane have any shot of getting past undefeated Air Force, or will the Falcons have to drop a game to pass them? And where does Tulane end up if not the Fiesta? — Stephen O.
We’ll know more when the first CFP rankings come out Tuesday, but I’ve always found it hard to believe that a one-loss G5 team would get the bid over an undefeated team at the end of the day. If Air Force goes undefeated, the Falcons would get the spot.
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Of course, Tulane’s one loss was to an Ole Miss team floating around the AP top 10, and Air Force and Liberty have not played a team anywhere close to that. While much has been made of Liberty’s strength of schedule, ranked 133rd by ESPN, Air Force is sitting at 131.
They are nearly even in strength of record and game control. The advanced stats see little difference between the two. But the committee might.
Tulane’s 96th-ranked schedule is nothing to write home about either, and the Green Wave have had to hold on to escape Rice and North Texas in recent weeks. I believe Tulane is the best team, but I also believe the committee would not pass on an undefeated Air Force.
Still, the NY6 spot remains wide open because of who those teams still have to play. Air Force may play Fresno State in the Mountain West championship game. Tulane still has to play UTSA and will have another difficult game in the AAC championship. It’s an opportunity for big wins or losses. It’s why I wouldn’t rule out Liberty’s chances, nor Toledo, nor the possibility of a two-loss SMU or Troy perhaps. But here’s how I would rank the five teams most likely to get the spot.
1. Air Force
2. Tulane
3. Fresno State
4. Liberty
5. Toledo
Is there any realistic possibility of the NCAA reversing course and letting JMU and other FBS transitioning teams be bowl-eligible if they play enough FBS games to qualify? — Jim S.
As frustrating as it is, there has been no indication to this point of JMU’s status changing. Some local politicians have taken up the fight, including the attorney general and a state senator. It also happens to be an election year for many state government roles. NCAA president Charlie Baker (who doesn’t make the decision), seemed to brush aside a letter from the AG, saying that the Division I Board of Directors believes the standards must remain the same for reclassifying schools. I’ve reached out to the local politicians for further comment.
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Aside from JMU, I’ve not gotten any sense the rule will change, and other recent rule changes will make it harder for FCS schools to move up. This month, the Division I Council changed the FBS requirements, removing the attendance requirement but adding a $5 million application fee (up from $5,000) and stricter scholarship usage requirements.
Remember, JMU’s situation was unique. The Dukes didn’t ask for the entire rule to change. They asked for a waiver because they spent their first reclassifying year as an FBS program, which is rare, and they already had the resources in place to compete. That’s not the case with most transitioning schools, and it’s even less likely to be the case with what is left in FCS, other than North Dakota State. In addition, Jacksonville State is 7-2 in its first FBS season, while Sam Houston is 0-8. Not all moves are equal.
If JMU were eligible for the at-large bid, would it be the obvious leader? Or would it still be a close race with Tulane? — Ben W.
It would be a close race with Air Force and Tulane, as we see in the polls, but I might pick JMU as the favorite because it’s 10th nationally in strength of record and has good win opportunities still on the schedule.
I was dismayed but not surprised that Ohio lost to Miami (Ohio). How did things go wrong for a season that began with such promise, and what needs to change for next season? — Michael S.
Man, you gotta feel for Ohio fans. It has been more than 50 years since they won the MAC, losing in the conference title game five times. That includes last year when Kurtis Rourke tore his ACL and didn’t play in the championship game. The Bobcats started this season 5-1 with a win against Iowa State and looked like the favorites. Then Rourke threw three interceptions in a loss to Northern Illinois, and the Bobcats lost to a Miami (Ohio) team playing without starting quarterback Brett Gabbert. Now Miami controls the MAC East.
While 3-1 Buffalo is still in play in the East, the Bulls have Toledo, Ohio and Miami in the next three games, and Miami has the tiebreaker over Ohio. It’s hard to see anyone but Miami winning the East, but the MAC always can surprise you.
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As for next season, it’s too early to get into that, but Rourke does have another year of eligibility thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic year. I haven’t seen him particularly high among NFL draftable QB rankings, but the CFL could be in play. More than anything, Ohio just needs to win the big game more often than it does. It has been an incredibly consistent run of success since Frank Solich got there. You just would like to see Ohio finally win the MAC.
One of the interesting hires of the offseason was Biff Poggi at Charlotte. What is your assessment of what has occurred at Charlotte through eight games and what should the program’s expectations and ceiling be heading into 2024? — Andrew J.
Boy, has it been a strange year for Poggi. Most recently, he suspended an unspecified number of players for the next game after a 38-16 loss to FAU.
“I am extremely disappointed with our comportment as a football team against FAU,” Poggi said in a statement. “I have made the decision to immediately suspend various players for our game against Tulsa.”
What exactly that means, I am not sure. After the third quarter of the FAU game, Poggi told the ESPN broadcast that watching his team was like sausage being made and “a horrifying experience.” This has been common throughout the season, with Poggi trashing his team, his staff and himself after pretty much every loss (the team is 2-6 and 132nd nationally in scoring).
For us in the media, it’s fun. His comments and sleeveless shirt look are entertaining. But I’ve also heard from coaches and other people in the sport who say that the program looks like a mess from the outside because that’s the face he’s putting on it.
This program did need an overhaul, but it should be contending for bowl games soon. There is support, with a packed house for almost every home game. Poggi has been successful at the high school level and in the business world, but college football is different. It’s too early to say if this will work, but at some point, you want the program to be known for what it does on the field.
What entity determines the NY6 bowl that the G5 representative plays in each year? — Ian K.
It rotates between the Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl and Cotton Bowl because the Rose, Sugar and Orange have specific contracts with P5 conferences that were put in place before the College Football Playoff. In years when the Fiesta and Peach are semifinals, the Cotton Bowl gets the G5 team.
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This is a Rose/Sugar semifinal year, so all three are technically in play, but it’s generally understood that a non-semi won’t get the G5 team in consecutive years, so it’s down to the Fiesta and Peach this year. From there, geography can play a role. Since Air Force is in Colorado, the Fiesta is considered the likely landing spot. If it’s Tulane, the Peach is perhaps more likely. Would the Cotton be open if it was SMU? I’m not sure. But that’s how it all works.
When we move to a 12-team Playoff next year, we’ll be dealing with home sites.
Why don’t we have more G5-P5 bowl games? Regular-season G5-P5 matchups are by a vast majority at P5 sites. It would be interesting to see the success rate at neutral sites. — James D.
It’s largely because of TV ratings and home crowds, and P5 schools generally bring more of those to bowl games, so the bowls and ESPN would prefer P5-P5 matchups. It’s why they make so many agreements with the P5 conferences and why they long had more guaranteed bids. I’m with you. It would be a far more interesting product to have more G5-P5 matchups, but I can understand why bowl games might think it would lead to a lot of blowouts based on many nonconference regular-season results.
Group of 5 Top 10
1. Air Force (8-0)
2. Tulane (7-1)
3. James Madison (8-0)
4. Fresno State (7-1)
5. Liberty (8-0)
6. Troy (6-2)
7. SMU (6-2)
8. Wyoming (5-3)
9. Memphis (6-2)
10. Georgia Southern (6-2)
Just missed: Toledo, Miami (Ohio), Georgia State, UNLV, UTSA
Games of the Week
American: SMU (-11) at Rice
7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPNU
Pick: SMU to win, Rice to cover
CUSA: Jacksonville State at South Carolina (-14)
Noon ET Saturday, ESPNU
Pick: South Carolina
MAC: Buffalo at Toledo (-15.5)
7:30 p.m. ET Tuesday, ESPN2
Pick: Toledo to win, Buffalo to cover
Mountain West: Army at Air Force (-18.5)
2:30 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS Sports Network
Pick: Air Force to win, Army to cover
Sun Belt: South Alabama at Troy (-6)
7:30 p.m. ET Thursday, ESPN2
Pick: Troy
(Top photo: Chris Graythen / Getty Images)