The changes continue in Toronto as the search for the Maple Leafs’ next general manager continues following Kyle Dubas’ surprise exit.
When that next GM is named, they’ll have no shortage of decisions to make in a short amount of time. At the top of the list is whether to move one or multiple members of the team’s forward core, but as July 1 creeps closer, not far below on that same list is how to approach free agency.
An extension for Auston Matthews, a star trade, a new deal for Ilya Samsonov, a new coach (or not): The 10 biggest priorities for the next GM of the Leafs: https://t.co/aj8T6LIMsW
— Jonas Siegel (@jonassiegel) May 22, 2023
The Leafs currently have 13 unrestricted free agents who played in the NHL this season to make decisions on, as well as a handful of restricted free agents – including their No. 1 goalie.
In short: Not an insignificant lift for the next GM. As we wait for the next Leafs GM to be named, here’s what I’m hearing about those free agents.
What a pleasant surprise Luke Schenn was for the Leafs after being added from the Canucks at the trade deadline.
Originally thought to be an outsider in the top six heading into the playoffs, Schenn ended up being one of the team’s most reliable and best defenders in the playoffs, alongside Morgan Rielly. You got the sense Schenn – originally drafted fifth by the Leafs in 2008 – genuinely wanted to be in Toronto, and that was reflected in the comfort he showed with his play on the ice.
Advertisement
When the Leafs acquired Schenn at the trade deadline, there were very brief conversations about a possible extension on his two-year deal ($850,000 AAV).
Even though those conversations took place with the Dubas-led regime, you wonder if there’s still a road for him to return to Toronto.
Former Flames GM Brad Treliving is considered one of the frontrunners for the job and it’s believed Treliving is a fan of the defenceman and tried to acquire Schenn at multiple trade deadlines.
If Treliving ends up being the GM Shanahan hires, and if he is presented with the option to sign Schenn to an extension, there is at least some genuine familiarity with the player.
What kind of number would Schenn be looking for, though?
Schenn is 33. Before his last deal, he had been on three straight one-year contracts. He may be looking for something longer than a one-year deal at around $2 million per year.
My sense is Schenn would like to return to Toronto and isn’t fazed by the pressures that come with playing for this team. He adapted seamlessly to the team, relying on his familiarity after his first four seasons were spent with the Leafs.
And his strong playoff run spoke for itself. As it stands, the Leafs don’t have a tough-nosed defender with his playoff experience on the roster and able to play meaningful minutes next season.
David Kampf might have cooled off in his second season as a Maple Leaf but the defensive-minded centre still provided tremendous value for his $1.5-million AAV over his two seasons in Toronto. Given how he can be trusted to take defensive zone draws, be the first player sent over the boards on the penalty kill and his reliability (Kampf was one of just two Leafs to play in all 164 regular-season games over the last two seasons) he’s due for a hefty raise.
It’s believed the Leafs engaged in some informal discussions with Kampf about re-signing in Toronto this season. Like many players on this list, Kampf would be open to a return to the Leafs but the team’s salary cap situation closer to July 1 could dictate whether that happens. He may want to double his current AAV.
Alex Kerfoot featured in every regular-season game for the Leafs over the past three seasons providing energy and defensive effort and was comfortable moving to different lines whenever necessary. It’s been reported that instead of shipping Kerfoot out to St. Louis at the deadline to shed his $3.5-million AAV in the trade for Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari, Dubas held on to Kerfoot and paid a fourth-round pick to the Wild to eat 50 percent of O’Reilly’s salary instead.
Advertisement
Of course, you could argue the 10 goals Kerfoot scored last season didn’t provide enough value for his cap hit. But compared to some other players on this list, it’s not as likely Kerfoot would get a serious salary increase on his next contract.
The Leafs did not engage in any meaningful contract discussions with Kerfoot during the season. If his salary demands stay in the same ballpark as his last contract, there will inevitably be teams coveting his services. He’s a mature, respected locker room voice and the door hasn’t completely closed on Kerfoot taking his voice back to Toronto, either.
Ryan O’Reilly didn’t commit one way or the other during his year-end availability when asked about his future. He was Dubas’s biggest swing and made a notable impact against the Lightning in the first round.
“I’m so thankful I was able to be brought into (the Leafs organization),” O’Reilly said. “I’m sorry we couldn’t get the result we wanted.”
O’Reilly is 32 and coming off a seven-year deal with a $7.5-million AAV. While he might not command a similar AAV in his next deal, his experience alone might get him to a number that is out of the Leafs’ price range. He’s probably looking at an AAV in the $5.5 million range.
One thing I wonder: If O’Reilly and the Leafs aren’t able to come to terms on an extension, would a return to St. Louis make sense for him?
The Blues look to have just under $5-million in cap space as it stands, which might make things tight. Blues GM Doug Armstrong said in his year-end availability that he hasn’t decided if his team will have a captain next season, before dropping one little hint worth noting: “I guarantee we won’t be announcing one in the next few months.”
Is it possible Armstrong waits to see if O’Reilly is available and tries to bring the former Blues captain back?
Keep an eye on what happens with Noel Acciari. We know the forward was previously coveted by the Leafs before a trade deadline deal brought him and O’Reilly to Toronto. Acciari said he’d “love to” return to Toronto next season. He earned $1.25 million on a one-year deal last season and did what was expected of him in the playoffs by bringing physicality and forechecking with a relentless work ethic.
Advertisement
Acciari poked fun at himself during his year-end availability, saying his hope next season was “just to get a contract.”
Acciari may be in for a modest raise but if the Leafs can get Acciari on a similar number to his current deal, that’s an avenue they should explore.
“Playing in Canada, you want to be a Maple Leaf. It was very special. I was very fortunate to get traded here,” Acciari said.
After back-to-back seasons with 23 goals on a measly $950,000 cap hit, Michael Bunting has earned a serious raise on a longer-term deal — perhaps at an AAV of more than $5 million. It feels unlikely he gets that raise from the Leafs.
“That’s the unfortunate part of this business, when contracts are up and decisions have to be made. To be honest, I haven’t even really thought about it,” Bunting said during season-end media availability.
Bunting said he did not have any contract extension discussions with the Leafs during the season. He spoke with a sense of finality during that availability.
“Coming home, playing in Toronto, it’s been a dream of mine,” Bunting said. “It’s been pretty special to play here.”
With a .919 save percentage, Ilya Samsonov put together the best season of his career, making good on the one-year, $1.8-million bet on himself he made. He usurped Matt Murray for the starting role during the season and became a likable character around the team.
Crucially, Samsonov is an RFA and the Leafs control his rights. You have to believe he’s seen as an important part of the Leafs’ future moving forward, but let’s not forget: Samsonov was also an RFA with the Capitals and they did not opt to re-sign him. It’s believed Samsonov would like to stay in Toronto.
Talks between Samsonov and the Leafs will likely begin at the NHL’s draft combine in early June.
Samsonov has earned the right to seek a long-term deal, if that’s what he’s after. He’s eligible for arbitration, but I don’t think that’s a road he’d prefer to go down.
Throughout Justin Holl’s entire eight-season tenure in the Leafs organization, he was one of Dubas’ guys. It’s worth remembering here that when Holl was playing his best hockey for the Leafs, all the credit went to Dubas for unearthing him from the ECHL.
And so with Dubas no longer the GM, it feels likely Holl moves on. He provided good value for his $2-million cap hit and though he should be due for a raise, as a right-shot defender who can move the puck and kill penalties, he likely will (and should) attract suitors throughout the league.
There wasn’t plenty of opportunity for Erik Gustafsson to stake a claim on the Leafs blue line after being acquired at the deadline but when he did play, the 31-year-old showed he was capable of providing offence. He was one of just two Leafs defencemen to score in the playoffs and with more opportunity, might be able to contribute on a second power-play unit.
Advertisement
It doesn’t sound like there’s been any communication from the Leafs to Gustafsson about a possible return now that his one-year $800,000 contract is up. Gustafsson hopes to land a multi-year deal, is due for raise and there are six Leafs defencemen signed for next season. That could change with a new GM, of course. We’ll see.
After two seasons bouncing up and down between the Marlies and the Leafs and logging 24 NHL games, my sense is Erik Kallgren is interested solely in seeing a pathway to a bonafide NHL backup job. Kallgren is a Group 6 UFA, having not accrued the necessary 28 games of NHL experience. And with Joseph Woll having seemingly won over the organization with his play, Ilya Samsonov an RFA and Matt Murray’s future lingering as a sizeable TBD, I’m not sure if Kallgren sees that with the Leafs.
Kallgren will be 27 around the time next season starts. He’s a career .892 NHL goalie and you can understand his belief in himself and his abilities at the NHL level.
Like every player on this list, the door isn’t necessarily closed on a return to Toronto given the turnover in the front office and the new priorities the incoming GM may or may not have. But with Keith Petruzzelli, Dennis Hildeby and Vyacheslav Peksa all under contract next season and all likely to log time with the Marlies, Kallgren’s time in Toronto may very well have come to an end.
I chatted with two Marlies who spent time with the Leafs this season and are now RFAs: Pontus Holmberg and Filip Kral.
Holmberg, 24, in particular, was trending toward an NHL spot this upcoming season or at least he was under Dubas, who certainly valued the smart, defensive centre and touted him as an NHL player.
Holmberg played 37 games for the Leafs in the middle of the season and wants to stay with the organization.
“I don’t have a contract. I hope I’m here. I like Toronto,” Holmberg said.
Advertisement
To help him get that contract, Holmberg said he plans to spend his summer developing a more powerful shot and learn to be stronger on his stick.
“There are much stronger players in the NHL,” Holmberg said.
Kral, 23, had an up-and-down season in Toronto. He made his NHL debut but also suffered a serious shoulder injury as well as a bout of vertigo that took him two months to recover from.
“It was weird. It felt like I was on a boat for the better part of two months,” Kral said.
He’s since recovered but it’s worth wondering how the Leafs will end up seeing Kral’s role in the organization moving forward. He’s a well-liked player who plays a clean, mistake-free game, but the Marlies have long wanted him to be a more physically-imposing defenceman.
Will there be enough confidence from the organization that Kral can move past his injury and not second-guess himself when trying to make physical plays?
“I had that in my head a lot in December when I was trying to get back with my shoulder. Almost every time when I went into a battle, it hurt. But now I feel fine,” he said.
Finally, one name I’ve had thrown at me as a possible UFA fit for the Leafs on July 1: Josh Archibald. The 30-year-old is coming off a one-year $900,000 deal and could very well come in at a similar number this upcoming season. The right winger’s bottom-six role with the Penguins was limited (9:59 ATOI) but when he was on the ice he brought a forechecking ability and, crucially, drew the most penalties per 60 minutes (2.33) of any NHL player with at least 60 games played last season.
(Top photo of Ryan O’Reilly: Gavin Napier / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)